Independent Sheep

No more blogging.... for a while

2004-11-29T05:00:00.000-06:00

Due to the press of my non-blogging schedule for the next couple of months I am not going to have the time necessary to focus on this blog.

It has been a lot of fun and I appreciate all who have participated.

Update on Iraq... more dead terrorists

2004-11-24T13:25:00.000-06:00

The incident I mentioned last night in my multi-item post regarding the possible imminent capture of Zarqawi appears to have been a false alarm based on this post from Chester.

What is particularly interesting about the information Chester provides is the characterization by Coalition commanders of the 'Zarqawi' fighers. Lt. Colonel Mark Smith the battlion commander at Mahmudiyah had the following to say:

"Lieutenant Colonel Mark Smith, the commander of the 2nd Battalion based at Mahmudiyah, said: "We have insurgents returning home from Fallujah and finding us on the way. With Fallujah over, the action has moved here. This is now the most dangerous place in Iraq. Increasingly, we are coming up against Zarqawi's people; they are better armed and better trained."

"Lt-Col Smith had just returned from an all-night operation, and still had camouflage paint on his face. The raid, on a farm, followed information that Zarqawi was hiding there. They did not find him, but, Lt-Col Smith said, they caught two senior militant leaders."

"We have had lots of engagements and we have killed a lot. We keep on getting reports that Zarqawi is in this area. If he is we shall find him and we shall capture or kill him."

Another report in the same post:

"Lieutenant Michael Loring Mayne, who was involved in the battle at Yusufiyah, said: "What is very noticeable is that we are coming across well-trained fighters. In Yusufiyah they carried out a fighting withdrawal. That is not easy; it needs skill and discipline. We faced some pretty fierce and sustained fire and some of it was at pretty close quarters, some of my guys were pretty badly hurt."

Belmont also has this more recent post up with some interesting further anecdotal evidence that we have - as we like to say in Texas - 'opened a can of whup ass' on these murderous thugs.

"We know that some of them headed in our direction before the Falluja battle," he said, citing intelligence reports. "We're going to try to isolate them. Then we're going to bounce all over. We're not going to hit just one area. We're going to hit a multiplicity of targets so that they have no safe haven that they can go to."

Military officials in the province said nearly 250 insurgents had been captured there in the past three weeks, including 32 on Tuesday in the Jabella raids.

Our forces are killing and capturing thousands of these jerks. More intelligence. Fewer enemy combatants. More evidence to 'fence sitters' in Iraq that we are not fooling around and that the 'insurgency' is doomed.

Given that we have learned from captured terrorists that their operation is being run out of Syria it is interesting to note that Syria is jumping up and down trying to get Israel to discuss peace but Israel is saying 'no thanks' Bashir... not until you stop supporting terror. Haaretz has an article on this today.

The re-election of President Bush is reverberating throughout the world but it is particularly having an impact in the Middle East.

Four more years of lower taxes and dead terrorists........ you gotta love it (unless you are a terrorist).

Just when you thought the geopolitical situation couldn't get any crazier...

2004-11-24T13:18:00.000-06:00

Now those fun loving Russians - who seem to be in the midst of a putsch by ex-KGB apparatchiks who are trashing the free market and democratic advances of the 90's - have sent Russian special forces into the Ukraine wearing Ukrainian uniforms to 'help' their candidate who is apparently trying to steal the election.

Over 1 million marchers in the streets. Much confusion. Watch this one boys and girls. This could get ugly.

Hat tip to Belmont Club. Worth reading the entire post there. Much good information.

Thoughts on various matters....

2004-11-23T22:41:00.000-06:00

1. Iraq - The brilliant efforts of the U.S. military in Fallujah have apparently achieved all of the stated objectives. Reliable reports from Iraq (i.e. non-MSM) suggest that the murderous thugs are reeling. The coalition is receiving more information each day. I have seen reports on Iraqi blogs (clearly labelled as unconfirmed) that Zarquawi is 'surrounded.' With the date for the elections set we are on a glide path to another major win for the United States and for all who oppose the tyranny of Islamic totalitarians.

2. Politics - Saw some commentary tonight that the Democratic Party is dead. Probably not yet but likely soon. Self destruction by radical elements in DNC coupled with the rise of very talented political operatives in RNC spells trouble. See #3 below. The constituents of the Democratic Party are the ones getting creamed in the global marketplace. Hope they appoint Dean head of DNC and run Hillary in 2008. Maybe run Michael Moore as VP. What makes me a little crazy is that these people NEVER get it when they are wrong. I can't help but remember seeing some clown on TV named Ron Dellums from California standing in the Congress and bellowing with veins in his neck bulging "I know with every fiber of my being that this war is wrong... and many thousands of American soldiers will die needlessly" Of course he was talking about Gulf War I. The ideological descendents of this character are still running around today whining about Iraq and so forth. Get a CLUE folks. We killed or captured 2500 of our enemy in the last two weeks in Fallujah - and probably more. We shut down their torture chambers, we ran them out of their bomb making factories. There will be a democratically elected government in Iraq before long. Will the "anti-war" crazies admit that "Well, maybe it was a good thing that we freed 40 or 50 million people from the Taliban and Saddam. Maybe it was a good thing that we have kicked the crap out of these murderers every time they are stupid enough to let us have a clean shot at them." No , they won't - and they should be ashamed for it.

3. Economy - Dollar dropping at a moderate pace is good long term. Trade imbalance of unprecedented proportions is unsustainable. U.S. dollar as world's reserve currency complicates things mightily. Saw comments today by Regional muckety muck with Chinese central bank that were depressingly accurate and to the effect that the U.S. needs to quit blaming others for its problems and get competitive again in the global economy. To do so would require massive disruption of standards of living, home values and so forth. I believe that the U.S. will maintain its economic vitality for the foreseeable future... as long at the 'blue state' /Democratic mush brains don't regain control. See #2 above.

4. Every time I think about how bad the Dallas Cowboys have played this year I want to throw up. Hope the Henson/Julius Jones era starts Thursday with a win over Chicago. Coach Parcells is going to rip this roster to pieces during the off season. Two first round picks may not be enough.

5. Much to be thankful for... great family, great friends, a great nation, the freedom to worship at a great church.

Probably will not post much over the holiday weekend. Going to enjoy the time off.

Paul Wolfowitz on current geopolitical reality

2004-11-20T11:27:00.000-06:00

Paul Wolfowitz is frequently demonized and mischaracterized, particularly by those opposed to the policies of the Bush Administration. Here is an in-depth interview that is a must read.

Excerpts:

I can understand people being anti-war, even if they know all the facts. But I still believe that freedom is a powerful force that will help sort this out. It's also a glue that holds us together. Who would have dreamed ten years ago that a Nato force would be keeping the peace in Kabul, so that Afghanistan could build a democracy? There's a lot that's creative and good.

--

I believe that we have many fundamental common interests with Europe based in no small measure on common values. And that in the medium to long run, that's what will prevail. The agenda of reform in the Arab world that the president is promoting is going to benefit Europe more than the US. If we can find a way to produce the two-state solution that the president wants for Israel and Palestine, that's going to transform our relations. But if you want to make the kinds of changes that I think are necessary, you're not going to get them done if you are too deferential to the lowest common denominator. For example, a lot of bad things happened in the Balkans because, on both sides of the Atlantic, people were unwilling to make tough decisions for a number of years. And then when they finally did and it's a success - well, who now remembers that Europeans thought Americans in the Clinton administration were overbearing?

Something really interesting...

2004-11-20T11:06:00.000-06:00

Victor Davis Hanson has a piece today at NRO which articulates both the genius (yes, I said genius) of the Bush administration's geop0litical instincts and the very high stakes at risk. If you want a short read on what is REALLY up this is it.

Here is a couple of paragraphs to whet your appetite:

Just as the breakdown of a few Communist Eastern European states led to a general collapse of Marxism in the east, or the military humiliation in colonial Africa and the Falklands led to democratic renaissance in Iberia and Argentina, or American military efforts in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Panama City brought consensual government to Central America, a reformed Afghanistan and Iraq may prompt what decades of billions of dollars in wasted aid to Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinians, the 1991 Gulf War, and 60 years of appeasement of Gulf petrol-sheiks could not: the end of the old sick calculus of Middle East tyrannies blackmailing the United States through past intrigue with the Soviet Union, then threats of oil embargos and rigged prices, and, most recently, both overt and stealthy support for fundamentalist killers.

--

Oddly, our enemies understand the long-term strategic efforts of the United States far better than do our own dissidents. They know that oil is not under U.S. control but priced at all-time highs, and that America is not propping up despotism anymore, but is now the general foe of both theocracies and dictatorships — and the thorn in the side of "moderate" autocracies. An America that is a force for democratic change is a very dangerous foe indeed.

Light Blogging Alert

2004-11-19T14:30:00.000-06:00

Have stuff to do tonight and this weekend. Will only be posting if there are important developments or I see something really interesting.

In case you were still confused about what we are facing

2004-11-19T14:15:00.000-06:00

Found a translation of the entire note pinned to Theo Van Gogh with a knife that was used to slit his throat as he begged for mercy. Here is the link. If you have any questions about whether we are facing an enemy with no regard for human life and who is intent on destroying us and others like us who value freedom you MUST read this entire note.

There is no compromise with this kind of thought. This kind of person does not respond to 'gestures of good will.' A 'more sensitive' War on Terror will not be effective here.

There is only one solution. We have to hunt down and kill these individuals everywhere we can for as long as it takes to eradicate this impulse within radical Islam to destroy us. Not pleasant. Not what we want to do. But like the man says:

"No discussion, no demonstrations, no petitions; merely death"

Their rules, their choice. Reminds me of the picture of the B-52 with all of its armaments arrayed around it on the ground... totally intimidating. The headline above "The terrorists have won the toss and have elected to recieve..."

Cliff Notes version:

Death, Miss Hirshi Ali, is the common theme of all that exists. You, me and the rest of creation can not disconnect from this truth.

--

Islam will conquer by the blood of the martyrs. It will spread its light to every corner of this Earth and it will, if necessary, drive evil to its dark hole by the sword.

This unleashed battle is different from previous battles. The unbelieving fundamentalists have started it and Insha Allah the true believers will end it.

Here is the punch line:

There shall be no mercy for the unjust, only the sword raised at them. No discussion, no demonstrations, no parades, no petitions; merely DEATH shall separate the Truth from the LIE.

Say: Lo! the death from which ye shrink will surely meet you, and afterward ye will be returned unto the Knower of the Invisible and the Visible, and He will tell you what ye used to do. (62:

And like a great prophet once said:

"I deem thee lost, O Pharaoh. " (17:102)

And so we want to use similar words and send these before us, so that the heavens and the stars will gather this news and spread it over the corners of the universe like a tidal wave.

""I deem thee lost, O America. "

"I deem thee lost, O Europe. "

"I deem thee lost, O Holland. "

"I deem thee lost, O Hirshi Ali

"I deem thee lost, O unbelieving fundamentalist. "

The "Tipping Point" in Iraq

2004-11-18T07:23:00.000-06:00

When a poor simple country boy living in the big city who is just trying to make a living writes a post that eerily anticipates an Op-Ed piece by a Pulitzer prize winning globally recognized journalist.... I gotta tell you it feels good.

Thomas Friedman is an individual with whom I sometimes disagree but he is unquestionably one of the most informed and well connected American journalists who cover the Middle East. His book "From Beirut to Jerusalem" is a must read for anyone who wants to understand recent Middle Eastern history. The Saudi Crown Prince disclosed the Saudi peace initiative for the Palestinians to Friedman at a dinner and gave Friedman permission to write about it before formally launching it a couple of years ago. That is how plugged in this guy is.

Recently he has been considerably less enthusiastic about our prospects in Iraq than the Sheep but hey... he works for the NYT.

As usual of late I think he paints too negative a picture with respect to his conclusion but the facts he offers from his recent visit to Fallujah and his recognition of the importance of what has been accomplished there is of great value.

As a reader of the Sheep you will know that the U.S. military is gathering enormous intelligence and has now come to understand the nature of the 'insurgency', their leadership and so forth. As I said recently :

It has been my expectation for several days that our forces were finding extensive information during their sweep of Fallujah and that given the high number of murderous cowards captured there would likely be much beneficial information gleaned.

Iran and Syria are stirring this pot. Lower taxes, more dead terrorists.... fewer terrorist supporting regimes.

Yesterday, after a fairly long discussion of facts on the ground in Iraq I made the following comments:

I believe there will soon come a 'tipping point' at which the 'insurgents' will begin to hit serious manpower, funding and supply constraints. I believe that as the non-insurgent Sunni Iraqis increasingly realize that we mean business, that the elections are going to be held and that there is no chance the 'insurgents' are going to prevail more accurate and more timely information will be forthcoming that will enable us to crush this bunch of thugs once and for all.

Imagine my surprise today to find an Op-Ed piece in the NYT by Friedman titled.... you guessed it "Iraq at the Tipping Point" which is based on Friedman's recent visit to Fallujah with General Myers the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Guess that offers Friedman a bit closer look at what is happening on the ground than I am getting here in beautiful metropolitan Dallas, Texas. However, I remain far more convinced that we are going to prevail in Iraq than Friedman. I note that as recently as a couple of weeks ago he was still saying that we have so badly managed things in Iraq that we were doomed to failure. His visit to Fallujah and his understanding of the enormity of what has been accomplished there have clearly forced him to concede that we are at the 'tipping point.'

I am going to quote extensively from Friedman's piece but I do so in an attempt to induce you to go read it yourself:

Every time I visit Iraq, I leave asking myself the same question: If you total up all the positives and negatives, where does the balance come out? I'd say the score is still 4 to 4. We can still emerge with a decent outcome. And the whole thing could still end very badly. There's only one thing one can say for sure today: you won't need to wait much longer for the tipping point. Either the elections for a new governing body happen by the end of January, as scheduled, and the rout of Saddam loyalists in Falluja is consolidated and extended throughout the Sunni triangle, or not.
--
I came out to the Falluja front in a small press pool accompanying the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Richard Myers, who flew in to inspect the toughest problems in Iraq firsthand. Most of the fighting in Falluja was over by the time we arrived at this headquarters compound, although the tom-tom beat of 155-millimeter howitzers, still pumping rounds into the city, was constant.
--
How important is taking Falluja? Huge. Falluja was to the Iraqi insurgency what Afghanistan was to Osama bin Laden. It was the safe haven where militants could, with total impunity, plan operations, stockpile weapons and connect the suicide bombers from abroad with their Iraqi handlers. That's gone. One arms cache alone found here had 49,000 pieces of ordnance, ranging from mortars to ammo rounds. Another arms cache blown up last week kept exploding for 45 minutes after it was hit, a senior U.S. officer said. [The Sheep noted this same 45 minutes of secondary explosions yesterday]
--
What have we learned from the many insurgents captured in Falluja? A vast majority are Iraqi Sunnis, with only a few foreign fighters. This is an Iraqi Sunni rebellion, but a senior Iraqi official told me that they had discovered Saddam loyalists who were using Aleppo, Syria, to regroup and plan operations.
--
The insurgents' strategy is intimidation. The U.S. strategy is Iraqification. This is the struggle - and the intimidators are doing way too well. Without a secure environment in which its new leadership can be elected and comfortably operate, Iraq will never be able to breathe on its own, and U.S. troops will have to be here forever.

Thoughts on death of Democracy in Europe

2004-11-17T17:08:00.000-06:00

Great article in British newspaper.

Europe (particularly in the incarnation of Mr Chirac) does not have a deep commitment to democracy, at least not in the sense that the English-speaking tradition understands it.

The American Constitution may have borrowed much of its frame of reference from French revolutionary ideals, but the historical outcomes parted company pretty quickly. The United States ended up with a federalised system and an iron-clad Bill of Rights while France was descending into the Terror. We do not have a shared reverence for the robustness of democratic institutions because, in continental Europe, democratic institutions have been anything but robust.

That is why the EU is busily moving away from the idea of government being directly and transparently responsive to the popular will.

The monstrous global crimes of the 20th century - the collective guilt which is still the motor force of European political consciousness - were all thought to have been generated (or at least condoned) by popular will.

The political instincts of the people are far too inflammable and mercurial to be trusted. Better leave the serious business of law-making and governance to a professional class of administrators, an enlightened elite who will not be subject to the whims and volatile passions of the mob whose vicissitudes have brought such disgrace on our countries.

Public opinion manipulated by national political leaders has to take the rap for the hideous events of the two world wars and the Cold War that followed them, and so they will all be cut down to size. Democracy is all well and good in its place but the power of the people must be sieved, regulated and heavily supervised if it is to come to the right conclusions.

It may sound apocalyptic, but I do believe that the democratic experiment in continental Europe, begun just over 200 years or so ago, is coming to a close.

The European Union is creating what it hopes will be a benign oligarchy. Real political power will reside once again within elite circles (as it does already in France) which will conduct their business in the corridors rather than in the assemblies.

Meanwhile, the United States will persevere with the belief, which Europe regards as crass, that giving ordinary people power over their governing class is the only hope for peace and security. Democracy, and what it entails, is not what unites us, Mr Blair. It is what divides us.

Exit Polls.... maybe some answers

2004-11-17T17:04:00.000-06:00

This article in The Hill suggests some very interesting answers to the Exit Poll fiasco. Short read, really no way to grab excerpt without context.

What it is really going to be like in Washington DC next year

2004-11-17T16:58:00.000-06:00

Great article by Tony Blakely in Washington Times.

"Blood in the Potomac" indeed. Your tax dollars at work.

If you think the fighting has been rough in Fallujah, wait until you see Washington in the springtime. President Bush's early personnel decisions for the second term suggest that he is preparing, unilaterally, to take on not only our foreign enemies, but also the Democrats and Washington's most cunning and vicious bureaucracies-all at the same time.

With the nominations of Condoleezza Rice at State, Porter Goss at CIA, Donald Rumsfeld (or an equally tough replacement) at Defense and Stephen Hadley at NSC, the president has created an all-Patton foreign and defense team. Moreover, he has a team that understands that among the necessary targets of their firepower must be, not only our foreign enemies, but also the slouching, sly, insubordinate bureaucrats under their chain of command.

While we know less about the president's domestic staffing, the appointment of loyalist Alberto Gonzales at Justice suggests that he, too, will be in hand to hand combat with the fourth of Washington's Bureaucratic Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Justice, State, CIA and Defense. On the day after Mr. Gonzales's nomination, I was told by an old Justice Department hand, that they were going to "eat Gonzales alive." I know these people. They mean it. He better go over there with a battle-hardened Washington team. The only thing those senior 'crats respect is the cold-hearted exercise of brutal power by their political master. The battle at Justice will be similar to our battles in the Middle East. Any gestures of goodwill or cooperation by Mr. Gonzales will be seen as weakness and will have the same effect on the bureaucrats that blood has on the nostrils of a shark.

What it was really like in Fallujah

2004-11-17T16:43:00.000-06:00

Great post on RealClear with extensive quotes from ordinary people in Fallujah about the torture, murder and general mayhem created by the 'insurgents.' Really worth reading the whole thing.

A man in his sixties, half-naked and his underwear stained with blood from shrapnel wounds from a US munition, cursed the insurgents as he greeted the advancing marines on Saturday night. "I wish the Americans had come here the very first day and not waited eight months," he said, trembling. Another elderly man, who did not want his name used for fear the rebels would one day return and restore their draconian rule, said he was detained by the militants last Tuesday and held for four days before being freed. "It was horrible," he told an AFP reporter."We suffered from the bombings. Innocent people died or were wounded by the bombings. "But we were happy you did what you did because Fallujah had been suffocated by the Mujahidin. Anyone considered suspicious would be slaughtered. We would see unknown corpses around the city all the time.”

Does this sound like there is a great deal of enthusiastic support for these creeps?

Centcom Agrees with the Sheep

2004-11-17T16:19:00.000-06:00

Centcom news release gives update on comments from General Abizaid who just spent three days in Iraq.

Reflecting on what he had just seen over a three-day visit to Iraq, U.S. Army Gen. John Abizaid said today that the enemy cannot militarily defeat U.S. troops or coalition forces fighting to free the country of terrorists and insurgents.

"They can't beat us. They can only break our will. They can cause us to get tired and to go home," Abizaid said. "And we just need to make sure they understand that they are going to go down before we get tired."
The battle of Fallujah waged over the past couple of weeks demonstrated the power of coalition forces, Abizaid said.

"Unfortunately for us, many of the top-tier people like Zarqawi decided that they didn't have the courage to stand and fight. They had the courage for other people to fight, but not for themselves," Abizaid said. "A lot of the fighters who were there (in Fallujah) were left there without any help or direction from their leaders."

It is important for the American people and the Iraqis to understand, however, that the situation will not be fixed "overnight." It will take time to train and equip enough police and military forces, and to find brave, committed individuals to lead them.

"What we need to have is patience," Abizaid said. "Patience and willpower."

Killing Terrorists Does Not Make Them Stronger

2004-11-17T15:32:00.000-06:00

Is this wisdom from Homer Simpson???

No. Just a great headline from the Wall St. Journal Opinion Journal for this article.

So coalition forces strike the city of Fallujah, and Iraqi insurgents respond by attacking in Mosul, Baquba, Kirkuk and Suweira. This, we now hear, proves that the more insurgents the U.S. kills, the stronger the insurgency grows. Call it the Obi-Wan Kenobi school of international relations: Strike him down, and he'll only become more powerful.

In real warfare, of course, killing the enemy means there are fewer enemies to kill. And in one week in Fallujah, and at the cost of some 40 American soldiers' lives and several Iraqi ones, about 1,200 insurgents were killed and another 1,000 taken prisoner. The insurgents have been denied their principal sanctuary. Their torture chambers--a stark indication of what they intend for all of Iraq if they're allowed to prevail--lie exposed.

Worth reading the whole article.

Assuming the figures above are correct that approximately 2,200 murderous criminals have been killed or captured that represents between 2/3 and 1/2 of the total estimated to be operating in Fallujah according to this article in the Arab News. The Article has a rather pro-insurgent bias but this snippet is interesting.

The insurgents were using an estimated 3,000 to 4,000 men to hold Fallujah.

I agree with Chester.

This seems to bode well for the Iraqis and the US. If terrain is no longer controlled by the insurgents, then those who live in that terrain are now free to participate in elections and go on with their daily lives. If hit-and-run tactics are the best that the insurgency can mount, it will eventually run out of personnel, funding, and weapons caches, all of which must come from somewhere.

For every attack that is prosecuted, one of two things happens. Either the attacker kills himself or is killed in the attack, or the attackers hold some limited objectives for a brief period and then are killed by coalition forces -- like in Mosul. This is an attrition battle that the US and Iraqi government will win. Insurgents must realize at this point that their continued attacks will not break the will of the United States to finish them off -- somehow conducting catastrophic attacks in Iraq prior to the US election was the action needed to shake the national resolve of the Americans.

The Arab News article goes on to say:

Iraq’s Interior Minister Faleh Hassan Al-Naqib admitted for the first time at a press conference in Baghdad that the interim government and the US led coalition faced a broad insurgency covering the Sunni heartland of the country.

Naqib made a number of other major revelations:

• Contrary to previous assumptions that the insurgency consisted of dozens of disparate groups, it is a unified movement with a large measure of central command and control.

• The overwhelming majority of the insurgents are Iraqis, not foreign fighters. In fact, non-Iraqi Arab fighters represent between four and six percent of the combatants. In Fallujah of the 1,200 insurgents killed, only 24 were non-Iraqis.

• The remnants of Saddam Hussein’s regime play a much bigger role in the insurgency than previously assumed.

• The insurgency has developed some form of political leadership, operating from Syria. Naqib named the principal coordinator as Muhammad Yunus Ahmad, a former Baath party security official.

Again, this is stated in terms that are generally unfavorable to the U.S., much like our own MSM. However, if you think about this for a moment you realize this is really pretty good news.

First, it means we are finally beginning to really understand who these people are, where they come from, how they are operating, who is pulling the strings, where they are getting their money and how they are organized. This seems very positive to me. When we weren't sure about any of this it was kind of like fighting a ghost. Now we know this information we can adapt our strategy and tactics to focus on and destroy this group.

Second, in terms of domestic consumption within Iraq my sense is that VERY few Iraqis are truly interested in a return to Baath Party control and the loss of their newfound freedoms.

Third, it suggests that there is a finite pool of funding, people, arms and leadership available for these criminals. Like the quote from Chester says "this is now a war of attrition."

We can kill them faster than they can kill us. Further, we are gaining support from Iraqis and our intelligence gathering is beginning to pay dividends. If you missed it previously you might want to read this post on the subject of our improving intelligence.

Don't believe the MSM's continued drumbeat for gloom and doom. The U.S. and Iraqi forces are learning more every day about the dead-enders and are getting more efficient at destroying their Command and Control, their supply lines and their arms caches.

Remember the 'underground bunker' we bombed in Fallujah a few days ago? Secondary explosions from ammunition and explosives in the bunker continued for 45 minutes. Think about that. It takes a hell of a lot of stuff to keep cooking off for 45 minutes after getting hit with a couple of 2000 lb bombs.

I believe there will soon come a 'tipping point' at which the 'insurgents' will begin to hit serious manpower, funding and supply constraints. I believe that as the non-insurgent Sunni Iraqis increasingly realize that we mean business, that the elections are going to be held and that there is no chance the 'insurgents' are going to prevail more accurate and more timely information will be forthcoming that will enable us to crush this bunch of thugs once and for all.

Seeming Confirmation of Strange Doings in North Korea

2004-11-17T06:53:00.000-06:00

Today the NYT has an article on the N Korea case of the missing tyrannt photos. This site requires login but it is free and despite the horrible bias of the NYT if you are not already registered you should do it anyway. (Thanks to Polipundit for NYT link)

Portraits of North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, have been quietly taken down this fall in important institutions in the country's capital, Pyongyang, several diplomats there say.

I noticed a post about this and mentioned it yesterday afternoon.

There are few things in the world involving greater uncertainty than speculating about North Korea but I am going to go ahead and take a chance.

Most of the comments in the original link at Chrenkoff and in the NYT article range from neutral to negative about this news. I wish to differ. My immediate sense is that we are possibly seeing the beginning of the equivalent of the Berlin Wall coming down in NK.

NK is heavily reliant on China. For fuel, for all kinds of other things.

China has now integrated into the global economy and is desperately trying to maintain stability in the face of runaway growth, a very troubled banking system and a mountain of U.S. currency that they need to recycle due to a huge trade imbalance. Further, China is faced with a variety of WTO imposed requirements and rapidly rising expectations from its citizens.

The worst possible thing that could happen to China would be some sort of regional meltdown caused by the psycho that runs NK.

The U.S. has leaned hard on China to 'fix' this problem. In a very solid diplomatic effort the Bush Administration has enlisted the other major regional powers into the dialog and has held all their feet to the fire on NK. They all have a MAJOR stake in avoiding nuclear war or even just some kind of meltdown short of that in NK.

There must be all extensive routine contacts between Chinese military and government officials and those in NK. It would not surprise me if the Chinese have had a "heart to heart' talk with some of the folks in NK other than the Dear Leader and made them an offer they can't refuse.

You guys take this idiot out and we will...... [fill in the blanks]. Money, power, unlimited gambling credit in Hong Kong. Maybe even enough food for the people in your country????

The key comment in my opinion in the article I mentioned yesterday is the following:

"But (US Democratic candidate) John Kerry's loss in the US election was a harder one. These are now very worried men."

These guys were sitting around expecting Kerry to win and to get back to the days of appeasement by Clintonistas. Now they know it isn't going to happen. Clearly the pictures started disappearing before the U.S. election so hard to connect the dots.

But, for the record, my money is on someone in NK blinking and that we will see a peaceful, constructive resolution of the NK thing during the President's second term.

If this happens and we manage to take out the mullahs in Iran the President will have gone THREE FOR THREE on the Axis of Evil.

Don't you just love Texans!!!!! Could it be that I was really on track with my very first post on this blog????

Kind things said about Democrats for my friend Stan

2004-11-16T22:56:00.000-06:00

Michael Totten, who was kind enough to acknowledge my note to him about Michael Moore on election day, has this post about rational thought on the part of Democrats. He first links to a story in the Washington Monthly by Kevin Drum which contains the following paragraph:

If Democrats are going to engage in navel gazing, our gaze really ought to be directed toward the one topic we continue to avoid like the plague: becoming more credible on national security. That's where Kerry and the Dems lost the election. Like it or not — and I can almost hear the outrage brewing already in the comment section over the mere fact that I'm mentioning this — fighting terrorism is the major swing issue of the day, and perceived Democratic weakness toward terrorism is likely to remain our biggest electoral albatross for quite a while.

Kevin Drum apparently links to this story by Heather Hurlburt in the same publication originally appearing in November 2002.

It is good to see Democratic strategists discussing policy alternatives that (1) defend and support the interests of our nation and (2) align with the realities we face as a nation.

Stan, now you can't say I have never posted something positive about Democrats!

What Democrats are thinking Part 2

2004-11-16T22:32:00.000-06:00

This post at Chicago Boyz is disturbing in several ways. Fundamentally, this is a naked attempt to gain political advantage by pretty much destroying businesses. This type of craziness could only be proposed by someone who has never had the responsibility of growing and managing a business.

Links to this story in The Nation.

Next, and this is rather ingenious, Geoghegan says repeal the ancient common law rule of employment at will, which means that the basic rule is that an employee can be fired without cause. Have Blue State legislatures pass a law that says simply: "Nobody can be fired, except for just cause." The purpose:

Any law in a Blue State that knocks out employment at will would do more for organizing in that Blue State than eking out a win over Bush and the right. How? Simple. It bulletproofs the people who want to join a union. When the boss tries to bust a union by firing Norma Rae without cause, she can go to court. Get a jury. Damages. Even an injunction. Contempt. With this law, if we had organizing drives, we could get some cover for our people. If poor Norma Rae is fired now, all we can do is file charges with the NLRB. If we prove antiunion motive, maybe the board will act. There are no sanctions and no discovery, and it takes forever. Believe me, it would be much easier, and worse for employers, to go into a court under a state law and take depositions. As we lawyers like to say, let's poke around their house.

So, let me see if I get this right. This guy wants to insert his liberal political agenda into the workplace and, in effect, bribe wage earners to support the Democratic Party by "making it much worse on employers" if they need to fire someone.

Can you say disincentive for hiring? Can you say nirvana for Trial Lawyers? This is nuts. Part of me hopes they try it because I think it will either backfire on the front end by illustrating how destructive these people's lust for regaining political power is or it will create devastatingly negative results on the back side by destroying employment base and causing accelerated flight of employers from states that put this type of regime in place to states who retain respect for basic business logic.... or to China or India or Mexico.

Why can't people see that this type of person is not the least bit interested in the true interests of the wage earners much less the owners of companies - which increasingly are wage earners and average peoople through pension plans and/or mutual funds.

In a period in which our nation is facing the most brutal international business competition in history this is a recipe for economic and political suicide.

REALLY Important news... if true

2004-11-16T15:55:00.000-06:00

When I went to Chrenkoff to get a link for the previous post I saw this article suggesting there is a power struggle in North Korea and that Kim Jung screwball may have lost. Apparently, his girlfriend just died and he is freaking out (I suppose even supremely evil murderous tyrannts are allowed their personal relationships).

W2 (Four more years of lower taxes and MORE DEAD TERRORISTS) hit them pretty hard also:

Chinese and Western sources say the regime has prepared for a state of siege as it confronts a re-elected US administration under George W. Bush that is determined to break Pyongyang and disarm it of nuclear weapons.

As Japanese envoys tried to persuade the North Koreans last week to rejoin multinational talks, Mr Kim's absence from the scene led to speculation a debilitating power struggle might have paralysed the ruling group.

This followed the death of Koh Young-hee, a dancer who had provided Mr Kim with an heir-apparent to the world's only communist dynasty.

"The loss of this woman was a blow," said a foreign diplomat.

"But (US Democratic candidate) John Kerry's loss in the US election was a harder one. These are now very worried men."

Diplomats and aid officials in Pyongyang noticed the first signs of a clampdown when some members of their North Korean staff were abruptly reassigned to new jobs and others became more nervous than usual about discussing current affairs. Restrictions had been imposed on foreigners' movements, they said.

Telephones used by foreign residents have been cut off and the secret police have assumed control of the country's mobile phone service.

Entry permits for foreigners have been curtailed.

This sounds pretty weird but the post links to an Australian newspaper story.

Then he goes on to say:

There are other signs: Polish press (link in Polish), quoting Russian sources, reports that portraits of the communist leader Kim Jong Il, which adorned every wall throughout the country, have all apparently been taken down.

Pretty strange, but VERY interesting.

What is more frightening than word of a meeting of terrorist leaders???

2004-11-16T15:43:00.000-06:00

This terrifying news report that the heads of NBC, CBS and ABC met to discuss "the future" of network news. Any hopes one had for these guys to 'fess up and realistically address the fact that most of the people in this country are very clear that the networks were little more than cheerleaders for Kedwards and the DNC was quickly dashed.

On Iraq, the three said that, in retrospect, they should have more aggressively questioned the Bush administration's grounds for invading Iraq in the spring of 2003.

"Simply stated, we let down the American people on weapons of mass destruction, and I sincerely regret that," Westin said.

And while the networks continue to commit enormous resources to reporting from the war zone, the presidents said conditions in the country have made it too difficult to do much groundbreaking reporting now.

Let me see if I understand this correctly. David Westin, head of ABC News - the home of the infamous Mark Halperin, author of the 'it is our job to trash the President' memo just prior to the election - is apologizing for 'letting the people down... on weapons of mass destruction' notwithstanding the fact that basically every intelligence service on the planet believed they were there and all of the professional intelligence resources of the U.S. government believed they were there and were telling the President they were there. I think what the Director of the CIA said was something to the effect of "Slam Dunk, Mr. President"....

Then, to add insult to injury they lie that conditions in Iraq are "too difficult" to do much groundbreaking reporting. Gee, wonder how Chrenkoff and about 50 other bloggers are getting so much great information.

I think if the networks would quit trying to misrepresent what is going on in Iraq and actually report the NEWS... all of it including the good news they would find plenty of groundbreaking information.

I suspect an intelligence bonanza.....

2004-11-16T15:08:00.000-06:00

and I think we will soon be seeing the positive results of this bonanza.

Hammorabi has this post in which he discusses some news on Arab language media.

The leader of the terrorists group which call itself (Jayish Mohammad) has been captured in Falluja. This terrorists group was responsible for many kidnapping, killing, bombing and video shows. Many members of the same group and other terrorist group have been captured.

Iyad Alawi told Al Arabyiah TV that the pictures of these terrorists and part of their confession and names will be released soon. Sooner after their captures they confessed about their networks inside and outside Iraq. These networks have multiple heads inside and out side Iraq in the neighbouring countries. The confessions may indicate direct and dangerous involvement of the neighbouring countries.

It has been my expectation for several days that our forces were finding extensive information during their sweep of Fallujah and that given the high number of murderous cowards captured there would likely be much beneficial information gleaned.

Iran and Syria are stirring this pot. Lower taxes, more dead terrorists.... fewer terrorist supporting regimes.

What the Democrats are thinking...

2004-11-16T13:23:00.000-06:00

Found this story today at a publication called The Progressive. More like the Regressives to me... advocates of outdated and clearly intellectually bankrupt ideas without a clue about how the world really works.

Like conservatives in the 1970s who wandered in the wilderness, progressives have to pick ourselves up after this defeat and finally really think long term. If we do, we may be able to turn things around

In other words.... we just have to do a better job of getting out our message and getting a 'more progressive' slate of candidates.

Memo to 'Progressives' : Conservatives spent their time in the wilderness applying a high degree of intellectual rigor to the question of how to align their policy initiatives and political approach to the values, attitudes and interests of REAL AMERICANS... not Michael Moore and Al Franken.

Another post at this publication is an 'apology to our incredulous friends around the world' - my favorite paragraph is:

First, some brutal honesty: A large chunk of the public here doesn't give a damn about what anyone else around the world thinks about the United States. In fact, for many people here, it is a point of pride to ignore the wishes of the rest of the world. Bush played on this nativism by saying, "We don't need a permission slip from anyone" before defending the United States. In the post-9/11 era, this pitch was an especially effective one.

No 'global tests' here scooter.... (apologies to Ron White).

This is an usually lucid paragraph from a progressive (which I think is a person even too liberal to call them a liberal).

However, the rest of this 'letter' is just pure brain dead Blame America, DNC talking points. Notably these paragraphs:

The churches played a huge role in driving their followers to the polls. Never in modern American history have the churches intervened so blatantly in an election.

When people weren't getting the message in church, they were fed it intravenously by Rupert Murdoch's Fox TV and talk radio. This diet of misinformation was not good for the brain: A majority of Bush supporters said they still felt the war against Iraq was part of the war on terror, even after all the evidence showing no link between bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.

No screwball presuppostions here. The characterization above is particularly crazy in light of this series of assertions just a few paragraphs later:

And people here on the progressive side are trying to translate these commitments into power. The broadly defined liberal and leftwing community in America was more impassioned, more determined, more organized, and more united than I've ever seen it before. People here know the stakes. And as citizens of the empire, almost all progressives felt an obligation to consider the harm that Bush was doing to you, the victims and subjects of the empire, and so they redoubled their efforts.

It was not enough, not this time.

But the coalition of forces-unionists, civil rights groups, environmentalists, activists of all stripes, from the old school and from the Internet-will not disintegrate. It will continue to cohere.

And there's another good sign: The alternative media here is stronger than ever before, with "Democracy Now" and "Air America" reaching tens of millions of Americans on the airwaves.

Plus, we can now exchange our messages on commondreams.org and buzzflash and Truthout and MoveOn, thus giving us the capacity not only to communicate but organize instantaneously.

Media activism is also at an all time high, with a new mass movement tugging at the trunks of the conglomerates.

And a cultural insurrection is under way: from Michael Moore and John Sayles to Bruce Springsteen and Eminem and Margaret Cho and Jon Stewart.

We are finally getting our act together over here. We are finally getting our message out. And there is a seriousness of purpose, an urgency to regain power, that is amazing to behold.

All I can say to Matthew Rothschild, the author of this nonsense:

W2 - Four More Years of Lower Taxes and Dead Terrorists!!!!!

Then you guys are going to really drive off the cliff and we may wind up with 80 seats in the Senate.

Are Blacks the new "bigots".....

2004-11-16T13:18:00.000-06:00

What a headline. I didn't make it up, I swiped it from this article at the National Review. VERY INTERESTING. Must read.

Excerpt:

Bush went from 7 percent of the black vote in Florida in 2000 to 13 percent in 2004. In all-important Ohio, Bush's support among blacks rose from 10 percent to 16 percent.
"I have not found a single black precinct where Bush's vote went down from 2000," Nadler says. "It just went up everywhere." One Republican strategist predicts that the GOP share of the black vote will hit 30 percent within the next few election cycles. If it does, many religious black voters will be finding their appropriate home in a political environment defined by a cultural split over social issues.

Someone once said of well-off Jewish voters who nonetheless vote heavily Democratic that "Jews earn like Episcopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans." Blacks have long worshipped like conservative Protestants, but voted like any other reliably Democratic group. Some now are beginning to vote like conservative Protestants.

The Democrats are likely going to take the wrong lessons from this election and dig themselves into a hole they may never dig out of. With massive defections from Hispanic voters and this very positive trend among black voters - not to mention Jewish voters it could get really ugly for them if the RNC handles the opportunity to broaden the base intelligently.

Hillary Watch... Only 1,449 days until the next Presidential Election

2004-11-16T13:10:00.000-06:00

If you were wondering what Hillary has been up to lately the monthly newsletter of the Holy Flame Pentcostal Church in Little Rock, Ark. reports this from their recent interview with the Senator from New York:

We welcome back to the area Senator Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.), who has been spending so much time here in Little Rock lately that she's practically joined the church choir! "I'm here spending time at my husband's library," she told the Lamp when we caught up with her after a Sunday camp meeting, "and of course, I always take time to worship God in as evangelical a way as is feasible, given time and location constraints. As you know, I consider myself an evangelical Christian, really a Christian conservative, if you want to know the truth, so it's nice to be 'home' again in the South, which I really consider my quote-unquote home even though I live in New York most of the time. Well, Washington, D.C., most of the time, actually, but if I'm not there I'm in New York, of course, but always thinking about being here, in the South, my spiritual home, where I shared so many wonderful evangelical . . . moments and . . . events. Can you read that back to me?"

This is remarkable news!!! Hillary is an Evangelical Christian... indeed a Christian conservative... What a scoop. The NY Times must be facing massive firings for missing this story.

To keep this item in perspective you may want to review a previous post on Hillary.

I am going to email this link to the RNC to make sure that they remember it in only 1, 449 days.

A Cold Town for Democrats... War is Hell

2004-11-16T13:00:00.000-06:00

I have recently taken to reading "The Hill" a publication concerned with all matters congressional. Sort of a trade paper for Congress.

Most hilarious story today about Daschle staffers having a hard time finding work.

Several Democratic aides said that a midsize Washington lobbying firm, the Alpine Group, declined last week to hire a Daschle staffer with whom the group had been in long-standing discussions about a possible job. They said the Daschle aide, who The Hill agreed not to name, believed he would get the job based on conversations with the firm about three months before the election.

According to one Senate aide familiar with the situation, the firm told the Daschle aide, “This is a cold town for Democrats. It’s especially cold for Daschle’s staff.”

Now clearly I am sorry for these people on a 'human' level and it should be noted that at the end of the story this was stated:

One Republican association head, referring to Daschle’s staff, said, “They are no doubt honest, skilled and capable people, and they will eat.”

So, to be clear my delight is with the fall from grace of people who have, in my judgement, irresponsibly obstructed the President's agenda for the last four years. They have been defeated in the battle for ideas and they are paying the price.

Maybe next time they are in a position to influence events they will remember what their ill conceived conduct got for them this time.

My hope is that the Republicans will maintain a degree of sanity and handle their newfound majority with grace and wisdom..... what are the chances of that????

Very cool T-Shirt.... Mrs. Sheep and I have ordered ours

2004-11-16T11:50:00.000-06:00

Don't you just love it???? You can order them here.

Chester Agrees... Iran is the next focus

2004-11-16T11:35:00.000-06:00

The Adventures of Chester is very informative. This post discusses an upcoming Atlantic Monthly article and the shortcomings of the so-called 'war games' they purport to describe.

Several days ago I posted comments anticipating this situation.

I said:

To those of you familiar with my thinking for the last two years it will come as no surprise that Iran is now coming onto the horizon. I have said that the President's geopolitical strategy for the region was to start with Afghanistan, then take down Iraq, bully Syria into moderation and deal one way or another with Iran. When this sequence is completed the neighborhood of nations in that arc of geography will have been radically altered.

The bad guys in Iran are actively supporting the bad guys in Iraq and there are indications that the Iranians are supporting the crazies in the West Bank and Gaza who are threatening the moderates. Haaretz discusses in its article today.

I know it drives the people who don't understand the Bush Administration's larger strategy crazy but there is definitely a brilliant strategy being executed here. The resolve shown by the people in America that 'get it' by re-electing President Bush signalled to the bad guys that their strategy of breaking our will did not work. They now know they are facing four more years of relentless pressure.

An Iraqi's view of things

2004-11-11T10:49:00.000-06:00

Recommend Hammorabi. Particularly this post. Read the comments to the hospital post.

In the comments Mesopotamia is mentioned. Also terrific Iraqi site. "The Tax" post is particularly interesting. It reads in part:

You have surely heard of the kidnapping of the relatives of Dr. Alawi, his cousin, aged more than seventy years old, the cousin’s wife and his daughter in law. The daughter in law is said to be pregnant. Immediately afterward, an internet site announces that they will be beheaded if some impossible demands which can be summarized as total surrender to these miserable Dead Enders.

Can you imagine this; beheading a pregnant young woman whose only fault is being a relative of the Prime Minister. Now you know the kind of people who are terrorizing the majority of the Iraqi people and have been terrorizing them by the same methods for decades. We, Iraqis are not surprised, because we have seen countless examples of worst brutality over many years. It is Allah’s wisdom that the baseness of these creatures be exposed to the whole of humanity in this most scandalous fashion. Erstwhile, crimes used to be committed in the dark, unseen and unobserved by the rest of mankind. Now you see, and there is no doubt and no disputable claims and no uncertainty.

These people want to be martyrs and meet Allah... OK

2004-11-11T10:32:00.000-06:00

Great post at Rantburg on ops in Fallujah. If Hadid is in fact toast that is a very good thing for the good guys.

More information on Hadid here.

A Case in Point... Brain Dead Liberal

2004-11-11T10:17:00.000-06:00

No sooner do I type the words in my previous post about liberals who can totally divorce themselves from reality than a perfect example appears.

Here is Jimmy Carter spewing foolishness about Arafat. This from a guy who sat with Michael Moore at the Democratic convention.

If you don't have a clear view of what a dreadful person Moore is you are referred to my post on Election Day about Moore bragging UBL saw F911.

Some thoughts on Arafat

2004-11-11T10:03:00.000-06:00

One of the most frightening aspects of our time is the ability of many people - generally of the 'liberal' persuasion - to utterly disregard reality at times. This ability is notably on display regarding Arafat. There is no question that this man was a murderous and malevolent figure.

Many young people don't remember the airplane highjackings that started right after Arafat assumed control of the PLO. Many don't remember the utter horror and shock of the attack on Israeli athletes in Munich. Personally, I believed at the time and continue to believe that the Munich attack was an assault on the very idea of civilization.

Today we see the long term results of the civilized world's failure to respond forcefully at that time.

The intentional murder of innocent people is NEVER justified to achieve any political end.

If Arafat has any legacy it is the PR driven assault on that proposition.

Read this and this for a clear headed perspective on this evil man. I think Jeff Jacoby's piece is a little too shrill and I disagree with his criticism of President Bush but he presents some facts and historical perspective that merit rememberance on this Veteran's Day.

A Tribute on Veteran's Day...

2004-11-11T09:53:00.000-06:00

Hugh Hewitt has a post today that by describing the life of a young Marine explains the greatness of this country and the 'red state' values so many of us celebrated on election day. Extremely moving.

Want to thank my friends who have served in particular. So, thanks to:

Jim Mead
Rick Galtelli
Stan Pinell
Walt Washburn

Also salute Walt and Mike Casson who have sons who have served or are serving in Iraq.

Mrs. Sheep and a Boddhisatva weigh in

2004-11-10T16:57:00.000-06:00

Well, Mrs. Sheep has read my post to Mr. Kuntzman and tells me I am forgiven. Guess I wasn't the only one who got upset about it. Mr. Kuntzman tells Polipundit that he is still getting "hundreds of emails an hour..."

She even says maybe I was not too far out of line on the Jesusland deal. To tell you how warped she is though... she thinks the 'fuckthesouth' thing is funny.

My good friend Walt, who is pretty darn close to being a Boddhisatva, had this to say about my Jesusland post:

Have to say the Lao Tzu quote is precious -- but face it, you could just as well have rendered it in the original Chinese for all your recipient will get out of it. Blogging is wonderful, but Jim, use skillful means. Your retort is like backhanding a child or even a puppy, or worse, becomes self-indulgent grasping. Set your sights higher in the intellectual food chain, where you can be a thought leader and inspiration to those capable of benefit.

Ok, you two I will try to calm down a bit but I AM getting pretty darn tired of being called stupid by these people..

An Interesting Article re: The Election

2004-11-10T14:07:00.000-06:00

The Hill (The Newspaper for and About Congress) had a couple of pollsters offer their observations at a recent breakfast. Worth reading the story about what they have to say.

Jesusland.... how some people view the red states

2004-11-10T13:16:00.000-06:00

Ann Althouse has a post today about 'Jesusland.' Following the links and repeating her Technorati search indeed results in some rather unusual commentary.

Some guy named Ken Layne shows up as a particularly offensive individual. If you want to understand what we are really fighting give this a read. Don't recommend you do it on a full stomach.

Sent Mr. Layne an email as follows:

I am offended by your crude, irresponsible prattle.

While I am not an ‘evangelical’ Christian I am a Christian nonetheless. Even worse, from your standpoint, I live in Texas.

The profane, hateful foolishness you and your friends at ‘fuckthesouth’ are spewing illustrates perfectly the lack of manners – not to mention lack of ability to successfully participate in civilized political discourse – that characterizes those of your political and ontological ilk.

Suggest you take time from your infantile outbursts and read Stuart Kaufmann’s brilliant book “At Home In the Universe” – if you pay careful attention you will learn that superior interpretive contexts rise higher on fitness landscapes.

“Ever desireless, one can see the mystery, ever desiring one sees the manifestations” Lao Tzu

The interpretive context that results in “Jesusland” is on an inevitable and irreversible decline. You are caught up in the manifestations and you don’t have a clue about the mystery.

Just keep telling yourselves we are stupid.

Expect an insulting response or no response. Further, doubt he will have any idea what I am talking about. Will post any response here.

A New Focus... The Role of Religion in 'Post-Modern" Society

2004-11-10T09:50:00.000-06:00

Two interesting posts off of RealClearPolitics today.

Mort Kondrake offers the Democrats very good advice.

The Italian Minister of European Affairs makes some observations about the reaction of European political and intellectual elites to religious faith.

Independent Sheep will be turning our attention to this subject over the next few weeks.

Our premise is that we are living through another period like the Copernican Revolution in which all of the 'experts' who are basing their opinions on the widely accepted world view will be proven to be terribly wrong. This is going to be fun......

How Hillary Clinton won the elections of 2008 and 2012

2004-11-09T16:16:00.000-06:00

Hilarious.... after all the serious stuff posted today I needed some levity.

You gotta read "How Hillary Clinton won the Elections of 2008 and 2012"

Essay begins:

[The following is a translated excerpt from the French graduate school textbook Histoire des Etats-Unis, published in 2150.]

Thanks to Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit.

Independent Sheep twists off on Kerry supporter crybaby

2004-11-09T15:26:00.000-06:00

Thanks to DJ Drummond at Polipundit for a post that brought my attention to a piece by a guy named Gersh Kuntzman on MSNBC.com. I found Mr. Kuntzman's definition of the difference between an "asshole" and a "dick" on his website.

This guy's first reaction to President Bush's victory was:

"F*$@ you and your f*%!#@&% moral values!"

Needless to say this did not sit well with Independent Sheep. So we fired off a brief reply to Mr. Kuntzman. Here it is:

Mr. Kuntzman,

My sincere sympathies regarding your obvious pain and confusion. On a purely human level I empathize.

As a strong supporter of the President I can relate to your feelings. I was feeling much the same when the exit polls suggested Senator Kerry was going to win.

But for you to say "F*$@ you and your f*%!#@&% moral values!" – to me shows rather clearly that those of you ‘on the left’ have totally lost touch with objective reality. That makes me angry. And it makes me want to offer you some observations….

It has long been my understanding, perhaps in error, that one of the foundational elements of ‘liberalism’ was tolerance.

In fact dictionary.com defines liberalism as:

“A political theory founded on the natural goodness of humans and the autonomy of the individual and favoring civil and political liberties, government by law with the consent of the governed, and protection from arbitrary authority” – which I would think includes protection from political correctness shoved down one’s throat by arrogant east coast dicks (see definition of dicks below).

Guess I was wrong – or maybe you and your friends in NYC (which I love and which is one of my three favorite cities on the planet) have decided to redefine Liberalism and just didn’t tell anyone else. Or, maybe you are just dicks who think that you are just so much smarter and cooler than the rest of the country that we should just shut up and do it your way. Isn’t that called totalitarianism???

It is interesting that people in this country are operating from such radically different interpretive contexts. In fact, if one wanted to analyze what is going on in this country in a more substantive manner than the MSM, Michael Moore and Barbara Streisand, one could say that we are experiencing a struggle between two very different interpretive contexts.

Just to prove I am not a Knowatus Nothingum (which I suspect your initial reaction to this email will assume) – I invite you to read Stuart Kaufmann’s book “At Home In the Universe” published by Oxford University Press. In this really excellent book you will learn among many other things about ‘fitness landscapes’ and how organisms or ‘interpretive contexts’ compete within ecosystems – if you bother to read it and if you have the mental horsepower to finish it.

Gersh my friend, our interpretive context is kicking your interpretive context’s ass. It is not just about gay marriage or abortion. I could explain it to you but you wouldn’t understand it because you already think you know everything. You are too busy self-referentially bemoaning the fact that there are more of us than there are of you. Got some more bad news. This is not a temporary thing. So get used to it Gersh. Class warfare is a DEAD HORSE… you can beat it all you want but it ain’t gonna get up and run any more.

“The difference between an asshole and a dick– and there is a difference, which is not appreciated–an asshole is someone who deserves our scorn. But the dick is someone who just deserves ridicule.” – Gersh Kuntzman

I am increasingly coming to believe that all you cry baby Kerry supporters are just dicks. I don’t have scorn for you - I just think you are ridiculous. My hope is that you dicks just keep banging your heads against the sides of the echo chamber while the other 59 million of us take care of business and continue to expand our control over the political apparatus in this wonderful country.

While you are sitting around today whining about gay marriage and the environment 10,000 brave and selfless Marines are risking their lives in Fallujah kicking terrorist butt today.

By the way I dare you to tell any one of those brave Marines "F*$@ you and your f*%!#@&% moral values!" to their face!

They are killing terrorist assholes by the hundreds (maybe thousands) that want to kill us.. including you. They want to kill us because we are Jewish or Christian or the wrong kind of Muslim – not because of anything else.

Unfortunately for them, President Bush and those of us who have a clue made up our mind to kill them first.

We’ll get back to you on gay marriage right after we get through saving western civilization.
Warmest regards

Mrs. Sheep will probably be upset with me because she thinks I am 'too mean' sometimes. Sorry honey..... will you ever forgive me? I promise not to do it again.

The US Military is dealing death in Fallujah

2004-11-09T07:44:00.000-06:00

And the murderous barbarians that are dying richly deserve it. So much for the 'paper tiger' thesis.

Great account of first two days of battle as well as U.S. tactics at Belmont Club. This is great stuff, most of which you will not get from MSM.

Some thoughts from a Marine in Fallujah

2004-11-08T13:12:00.000-06:00

Found this story written by a Marine in Fallujah a couple of days ago. Worth reading.
(Hat Tip: Black Five)

Fallujah tonight..... Iran is next

2004-11-07T22:42:00.000-06:00

Now that the American people have answered the threats of the murderous Islamic cretins and the desire for appeasement on the part of some the dangerous and hard work continues.

My heart and my prayers are with the members of our military risking their lives tonight and for the next few weeks in Fallujah and other parts of the Sunni Triangle. I have no doubt they will prevail.

Here is a post on a very interesting web site representing 'students' in Iran in favor of democracy.
(Hat Tip: Michael Tottlen).

Also, article assesing the difficulties and problems with respect to the Iranian nuclear facilitities.
(Hat Tip: Hugh Hewitt)

To those of you familiar with my thinking for the last two years it will come as no surprise that Iran is now coming onto the horizon. I have said that the President's geopolitical strategy for the region was to start with Afghanistan, then take down Iraq, bully Syria into moderation and deal one way or another with Iran. When this sequence is completed the neighborhood of nations in that arc of geography will have been radically altered.

The stakes couldn't be higher. The dangers are immense.

I hope that Putin's recent comments and his reaction to the Breslan horror has genuinely opened his eyes to the need to TRULY cooperate with us in eradicating the Islamic totalitarians. If we could get Russia's help in managing the Iranian nuclear problem it would be a much better situation. They literally know where the 'bodies' are buried.... they built them. They have people working in them.

The grisly murder of a Dutch filmaker on a public street in broad daylight may have started a reconsideration of European attitudes. See Belmont Club post for details.

Our nation, our civilization is in a fight for its continued existence. We face a determined enemy of a type we have never faced before. There is no easy way out. They won't negotiate. We can't appease them, even if we wanted to.

Kerry Concedes, Independent Sheep 10 Hrs ahead of MSM

2004-11-03T10:20:00.000-06:00

Just saw news that John Kerry has done the right thing and conceded.

For reasons known only to themselves the MSM - and Fox News - showed incredible cowardice by not awarding NV, NM and IA to the President hours ago. It is interesting to note that CBS awarded NV to BC04 BEFORE Fox News.

Couric looked like she wanted to vomit as the news Kerry had conceded came out.

There are several major themes that come out of this election. I will deal with those over the next few days on this blog and I am seriously considering focusing my professional life on elements of them.

Congratulations to President Bush and Vice President Cheney and their families and really all of the American people.

To Europe and the terrorists.... you can run but you can't hide. You are dealing with a Texan. Sorry you don't understand what that means but over the next 4 years you are going to have a little more time to get it through your thick skulls.

It is midnight.... no sea of red but BC04 WINS!!!

2004-11-03T01:01:00.000-06:00

BC04 appears to have won OH. Supposedly Carville has said on CNN that OH is done.

BC04 looking good in NM, NV and of course wll win AK. IA and WI close.

This puts President Bush and Vice-President Cheney over the top in my opinion.

Daschle looks to be in big trouble. GOP picks up several seats in Senate and House.

Presumably BC04 will win decent popular vote plurality and exorcise the ghost of Elections past.

UBL and terrorists everywhere.... stick that up your ..... OK I will calm down.

9:30 CST Florida for Bush

2004-11-02T21:23:00.000-06:00

Based on what we are seeing President Bush has carried FL by a comfortable margin.

Further, OH is looking very good. Am not yet ready to say OH is a done deal but it is very close to being one. Maybe another hour.

Obviously, if BC04 carrie these two states they are in great position to win.

The upper midwest states such as MN, MI, WI, and IA are going to be the next big indicator of whether this is going to be a tight one or if I am going to get my sea of red.

I am afraid PA is going Kedwards but BC04 people are telling various bloggers that they still beliee there is a chance to pick it up.

Senate races looking very good.

In depth analysis of Ohio based on Registrations

2004-11-02T15:11:00.000-06:00

Nixguy.com posted last night on the expectations re OH based on actual 2004 registrations and actual 2000 voting patterns.

Looks like he did a very good job, quite detailed. Here is conclusion:

In a perfect replay of 2000,
If Each county in Ohio voted according to the same percentages Republican and Democrat
With the same turnout figures [as % of registered voters]
Bush gets 157,431 more votes
Kerry gets 120,780 more votes than Gore did.
That makes for a 37,000 vote advantage which would increase Bush’s margin of 166,000 to over 200,000.

Conclusions: If the Bush campaign can get his people turned out, he wins Ohio handily.

NRO The Spot had this post on that point (BC04 GOTV in OH):

I just returned from voting in Ashland (about 60-40 GOP, and every office holder is Republican and have been for twenty years) and everyone is out there voting. Large turnout, especially among Republicans, in my opinion. This seems to be true state-wide (I talked to a half-dozen people from all around the state.

If there is one thing that seems to be coming through loud and clear from across the country it is that the BC04 GOTV machine is as formidable as it was supposed to be.

Election Night Schedule

2004-11-02T14:43:00.000-06:00

John Fund has written a piece at the WSJ Opinion Journal that lists all the states by the time their polls close with some information on Governor's, Senate and House races.

My interpretation is that the times he uses are EST. If so, the first 'swing state' polls to close appear to be OH at 7:30 EST, quickly followed by FL, MI, NJ, PA at 8 PM EST. MN and WI close at 9:00 PM EST. IA finishes out the 'swing states' at 10 PM EST.

GULP.... initial exit polls released

2004-11-02T14:36:00.000-06:00

Well, after all my 'sea of red' talk it was initially a bit freaky to hear the initial exit polls. However, it seems that these results are heavily weighted towards women. I am not going to take the time to do the math to 're-weight' them.... somebody else will likely do that for us before long.

Additionally, it is quite clear that these results are incomplete and don't really tell us much.

Next post will address when we will start hearing MEANINGFUL data.

The silver lining in these numbers (as far as I am concerned) is that many BC04 voters who were thinking that this was going to be a blowout based on initial reports will decide to go vote.

My Official 2004 Presidential Election Post

2004-11-02T13:49:00.000-06:00

Let's first look at where the race stands.

Kerry pretty much has 14 states plus D.C. pretty well locked up. These states have a total of 190 EC votes.

BC04 have 27 states pretty well locked up with 227 EC votes.

This leaves 9 states that are 'up for grabs.' These are HI and NM as well as the widely discussed 'swing states' of FL, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA.

The big swing states first. Obviously, this table includes 2000 results and projections from various sources that congeal into my final opinion. The confidence figures are from Horserace and you can see his calculations by clicking the Confidence column header.

The neat table I had laid out (but not in html) doesn't show up quite as well on the blog so here are the columns in the table below:

State 2000 Electoral Votes
2000 Results
2000 Margin
State 2004 Electoral Votes
Proj. 2004 Winner
Confidence

FL 25 Bush .01% 27 Bush 94.06%
IA 7 Gore 18.3% 7 Bush 96.56%
MI 18 Gore 5.2% 17 Kerry 89.07%
MN 10 Gore 2.4% 10 Kerry 94.74%
OH 21 Bush 3.5% 20 Bush 86.43%
PA 23 Gore 4.2% 21 Bush 70.88%
WI 11 Gore .02% 10 Bush 99.87%

So, of the seven 'swing states' 5 voted for Gore in 2000 and 2 voted for Bush. The Gore states LOST 5 EC votes.

This analysis assumes that Bush holds both of his states and picks up 3 Gore states - IA, PA and WI. With this result BC04 cruises to victory with 312 EC votes no matter what happens in NM or HI.

If BC04 picks up both of those states the final total is 321 to 217.

Ah, but what if BC04 loses the two lower probability states of PA and OH? A fair question.

If BC04 carries NM and HI it is BC04 300 Kedwards 258. If BC04 LOSES both HI and NM it is BC04 271 and Kedwards 267.

Horserace follows up with this analysis by accumulating the overall probablilities. Here is how he calculates it (I am not a statistician nor the son of a statistician so I am relying on his math - but his work is being refereneced all over the blogsphere so if he was wrong I suspect that would get caught very quickly).

Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4%
Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2%

He is making a somewhat more complicated case for ease of BC04 victory and difficulty of Kedwards victory but I think you get the point.

Bush is playing on Blue turf and Kerry has made NO substantial inroads into Red turf.

So, as I have said all day "A sea of Red tonight.. the President is re-elected by a wide margin and the Republican GOTV effort overwhelms the fragmented and half hearted Democratic effort."

Also want to reiterate that I believe Daschle is going to lose and probably lose big.

GOP will pick up several seats in the Senate and House. This is a very good thing.

In the next few hours things will start popping but there is enough info out there right now to pretty well validate this scenario. Weather is a factor in parts of the country but I don't think it is going to materially affect the outcome.

Kerry's pollster predicts Bush victory

2004-11-02T13:22:00.000-06:00

Michael Totten at Instapundit points to this story.

BC04 GOTV

2004-11-02T13:15:00.000-06:00

This post at KerrySpot gives me a really warm fuzzy feeling.

As for the GOTV effort, I volunteered yesterday for the GA Republican party. I remember reading months back (I think it might have even been on the Kerry Spot) someone was quoted as saying that while the Democrats knew the neighborhoods where there votes were, Karl Rove knew which block they were on. Well, let me tell you, every neighborhood that I went to, I was told which specific house to go to. At least in Georgia, they know where every individual Republican voter is. Here's how organized it was. I went to my County Republican headquarters and signed in. I told them I had about 3 hours, they had a specific set of packets that could be completed in 3 hours. The packet that I was given had detailed maps on which specific streets to go to. I was sent to heavily Democrat Decatur, GA. My list took me to specific houses. I would go down a street that was all Kedwards signs except for 1, and that was the house I had been sent to. They were extremely organized. I have a lot of confidence in the Republican GOTV effort. By the way, I turned every volunteer in the headquarters on to your site.

Obviously, this is going on all over the country. A sea of red tonight my friends......

The coolest thing I have seen all day....

2004-11-02T13:04:00.000-06:00

Yeah, I missed my noon deadline for my final take on the election but I am still going to do it before the polls close. At least it appears my expectations about turnout are proving true. Further, the turnout for GOP sounds great. Will post a very interesting story about BC04 GOTV in a minute.

Anyway... just saw this post at NRO The Corner. This is the coolest thing. Think about it. American's in Saddam's palace watching the U.S. election and rooting for Bush. Damn I love this country.

WATCHING W. WIN FROM SADDAM PALACE [KJL]
A nice way to ring in electoral victory:
K-Lo,
Lots of excitement over here in Baghdad for the election! (I am a former White House attorney who left for Iraq to help the reconstruction efforts.) The returns will likely start rolling in here around 3 or 4am. I work in one of Saddam's former palaces and my friends and I are staying up all night to celebrate. Is there a more rewarding place to be in the world than one of Saddam's old lairs, ringing in a Bush victory?? Methinks not. Only downside: we are stuck watching BBC and CNN World for coverage. Eh.

Early election day information

2004-11-02T09:09:00.000-06:00

After looking at the main sources of information this morning a couple of things are evident.

1. There will be massive turnout. Many observers are reporting VERY heavy turnout in heavily Republican areas.

2. Moveon.org and ACT, two subversive organizations associated with the Democratic Party are 'testing the limits' of legality in polling places across the nation from NH to MN.

3. Vote fraud is going to be rampant. Drudge has story of ~2000 votes on machines in Philadelphia before the polls even opened.

4. Tom Dashcle probably committed political suicide last night with his ridiculous lawsuit which he basically lost but which points out his desperation to engineer vote fraud on the Indian reservations. My guess is that SD voters will decide to retire this idiot.

5. The RNC and BC04 are armed to the teeth to combat all the Democratic tomfoolery and all the energy spent by far left on vote fraud will detract from their GOTV effort. Republicans very focused on GOTV.

This is going to be a very interesting day. In my heart I believe that serious, patriotic Americans are going to come out of the woodwork today and we are going to see a tidal wave of Red roll across those screens tonight.

Will post a detailed analysis of where we seem to be on this election and how I think it will come out based on Electoral College before noon CST.

Thanks to Michael Totten at Instapundit

2004-11-01T21:41:00.000-06:00

Wow!

In the tiniest of ways I got to participate in the blog driven effort to get the truth out about Michael Moore and by extension those who fawn over him.

It is an eerie feeling. I saw the letter Moore wrote and was so offended I wrote my post on it and then dashed off emails to several major blogs. Michael posted the quote and gave me a hat tip.

You may not know it but Instapundit is either #1 or #2 in unique visitors each day with a count over 240,000. Seems like those at the top of their game are frequently the classiest.

Just getting a hat tip and helping get the word out on this outrageous comment is a very cool thing for me.

So, THANKS Michael and Instapundit!!!

If you had any question Michael Moore is a despicable, arrogant TRAITOR...

2004-11-01T16:41:00.000-06:00

UNBELIEVABLY... Michael Moore posted a letter on his website today that, in part, says:

There he was, OBL, all tan and rested and on videotape (hey, did you get the feeling that he had a bootleg of my movie? Are there DVD players in those caves in Afghanistan?)

I cannot imagine what kind of sewer sludge would brag about influencing an individual who has sworn to destroy our nation, one who admitted responsibility for killing 3000 Americans in the same video this idiot is bragging about.

Alexandra Kerry's attendence numbers... as promised

2004-11-01T14:19:00.000-06:00

Am I going crazy waiting for tomorrow or what????

Anyway, I found this article on a local radio station's web site. The article is from AP.

HONOLULU (AP) _ Cheering John Kerry supporters packed Farrington High School Friday night to hear the Democratic nominee's daughter and a former vice president speak.

Alexandra Kerry arrived at the high school as Democrats chanted ``four more days,'' mocking the Republican mantra of ``four more years.''

Former Vice President Al Gore told the crowd that Hawaii's voice will be heard more loudly this year than in any other presidential election.

About a thousand people packed the Farrington auditorium.

The event was initially planned as a rally for Congressman Neil Abercrombie. But news that Gore and Kerry's elder daughter would appear drew Kerry/Edwards supporters, who waved signs as some of Hawaii's top Democrats arrived.

Former Governors Ben Cayetano, John Waihee and George Ariyoshi were among the top party officials at last night's rally.

So, Al "He Betrayed His Country - and I invented the Internet" Gore, Hawaii's top democrats and John Kerry's daughter drew 'about a thousand' people. Hmmmm. If you missed my post below the Vice President of the United States drew 7,000 at MIDNIGHT.

I still think I saw something about 400 to 500 people - which for MSM like AP - is 'about 1000' when talking about Democratic turnout.

UBL can't even survive a news cycle

2004-11-01T13:57:00.000-06:00

Nelson Ascher at Europundits (thanks Instapundit) has a great post about UBL. Amazingly coherent for someone from Europe. Short and worth reading.

Did he think he would shake today’s world? Probably. But he couldn’t really survive a 24 hour news cycle when there are so much more important things going around. Though the US has failed to capture him, Bush cut him down to size.

This will settle Wisconsin

2004-11-01T13:18:00.000-06:00

Thanks to KerrySpot we learn that:

IF THIS DOESN'T SWING WISCONSIN, NOTHING WILL

Forget the Redskins streak. Here's the real impact of the Packers' win yesterday, from PowerLine:

"My mom recieved a recorded message from Brett Favre supporting Bush. Reference was made to today's win vs. the Redskins. I would imagine this is playing all over Wisconsin.

This should lock up the Cheesehead vote.

Yeah, those fans from Lambert Field really are loyal to their team.

Vice President Hammers Kedwards in Hawaii

2004-11-01T13:14:00.000-06:00

Vice President Cheney got a rousing welcome from 7,000 people. I think Kerry's daughter may have gotten 500 - will have to check that. Anyway, the article gives a sense of the enthusiasm that greeted him and as ususal he gave a solid speech on the dangers of Kedwards.

You know it just amazes me. The Democrats must have thought... "Oh wow, this business of killing terrorists left and right is just a little too tough for us - let's nominate a weak, appeasing, gigolo that used to be a prosecutor and a hair primping, crybaby plaintiff's attorney that milked the healthcare system for millions using bogus science and we'll just swamp that nasty, mean old Shrub."

Sorry... couldn't help myself.

Tom Wolfe on the Election... in the Guardian

2004-11-01T13:05:00.000-06:00

The same English newspaper that had the bright idea of inducing their left wing readers in England to send emails to 'undecided voters' in Ohio prints this article today. Interview with Tom Wolfe about the lockstep mentality of the East Coast elite.....

So what is it about his liberal neighbours and fellow diners in his adoptive New York that Wolfe cannot abide? "I cannot stand the lock-step among everyone in my particular world. They all do the same thing, without variation. It gets so boring. There is something in me that particularly wants it registered that I am not one of them."

He also offers a rather frightening view of the state of sexual mores on college campuses gained in research for his latest book. Worth a read.

Our Friends in Iran...

2004-11-01T10:54:00.000-06:00

Really scary story. Now why is it that Kedwards wants to send these guys enriched uranium?

A 'top down' Analysis of the Presidential Race

2004-11-01T10:28:00.000-06:00

Polipundit has posted a very interesting analysis from a sort of top down perspective.

Pretty much coincides with what the reliable polls are saying.

Worth a read. Here's the conclusion:

Anyway, with 77.7% of the RV actually projected to vote, Bush’s 43.7% of the total RV becomes 56.2% of the actual vote. Kerry’s 34.0% of the RV becomes 43.8% of the actual vote. Give Ralph somewhere around 1% of the vote, and another 1% float out to other candidates, and we shake out to something like 55% Bush, 43% Kerry.

So, is this just a guess? Maybe so, but it’s an educated guess; all this talk about changing the definition of “Likely Voters” and assuming that people who had to be prodded to register will suddenly be enthusiastic about actually voting, or that the difference all year between the strength-of-support for Bush and the strength-of-support for Kerry won’t show up in the voting results, is just hype to spin a story. People, I have found, are generally creatures of habit, and what they used to do they will continue to do. In some ways, that’s good for Kerry, because there are a lot of people who consider themselves Democrats, and they have pretty much made clear that Democrats will support Kerry, while GOP will suport Bush. However, the information at hand indicates that Bush has been steady and strong in his base of support, while he has made in roads in a number of key demographics, like Women, Blacks, Jews, Catholics, People Able to Pay Attention to Facts, etc. The information I see, coupled with Bush’s trips into a number of “blue” states, indicates a confidence that indicates the President’s pollsters tell him the same information I am reading.

In the end, it always comes down to getting the butts out and voting, but if you want a clear call, it’s going to be Bush, and it’s going to be big. Not saying this so we can relax, but so we can be optimistic while we work.

What is on Bushes Brain's Mind

2004-11-01T10:27:00.000-06:00

Heard Karl Rove snippet on Laura Ingrahm this morning. He said "We will win FL and OH and we will take 2 to 4 blue states." This sounds about right to me.

A very well reasoned analysis by...... a Canadian???

2004-11-01T07:52:00.000-06:00

Will wonders never cease????

Did you think you would see a Canadian journalist adopt the exchanging Churchill for Chamberlain line??

Read David Warren's piece here.

Its all about the ground game now.....

2004-11-01T07:33:00.000-06:00

At this point the candidates have made their cases and the seemingly endless barrage of ads and media spin are pretty much over. From the polling data it sounds like people have pretty much made up their minds.

Now the focus shifts to the ground game.... the get out the vote efforts. The Democrats have had an enourmous advantage for years in GOTV but the Republicans have spent the last four years building an organization to compete.

Tomorrow night we will see how effective that effort has been.

Have been working on a final pre-election post that will go up tonight or maybe first thing in the morning. Will post any intersting things I find in the interim.

Some late polling internals look very good for BC04

2004-11-01T07:28:00.000-06:00

Polipundit has some interesting internals here.

Hard for me to see how Kedwards wins on these numbers.

Excerpt:

66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.

50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.

By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.

48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.

By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.

53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.

48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.

57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.

More from Jay.... Minnesota

2004-10-30T13:09:00.000-05:00

Jay at Horserace said the following about MN on Thursday:

Minnesota is one of the three genuine toss-up states of 2004. I believe the evidence on the ground indicates that FL, IA, WI and NM will go to Bush. Kerry seems likely to carry PA. That leaves MN, MI and NH as the three states that are simply too close to call. This could change in the next few days -- the polls out recently show a Bush surge in MN, but these are not to be taken too seriously. Nevertheless, if they continue to show a Bush surge, this strategy will become more and more tenable.

You can read the entire post here.

More Pre-election Info

2004-10-30T13:04:00.000-05:00

Jay at The Horserace is organizing an election night effort that sounds as though it will be very interesting. He also includes his take about currently released polls. It will be interesting to see how things turn out Tuesday and compare his analyses with reality. You can read his post here.

Pre-Election Information

2004-10-30T13:01:00.000-05:00

KerrySpot had a post yesterday that offers some potentially important insights that are said to be "what the Sr. Bush people are telling the mid-level Bush people" - See the entire post below:

THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE [10/29 01:24 PM]

I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.

Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...

So here’s the news for today.

Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.

There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?

In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.

In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.

In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.

In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.

Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later.

Fate of UBL Revisited....

2004-10-29T16:52:00.000-05:00

Well.... we can't let a little thing like reality interfere with our worldview now can we????

That is feeble humor trying to mask deep aprehension that the appearance today by UBL is a signal for another horrible attack between now and the election.

Hope I am WRONG.

Guess UBL's dentist lied. If you missed my earlier post on this subject it is here.

UBL at 4 PM EDT today???

2004-10-29T14:37:00.000-05:00

Reuters reports Al Jazeera will broadcast a message from UBL to the American people today at 4 PM EDT.... approximately 20 minutes from now.

This should be interesting.

Analysis of FLorida

2004-10-29T14:15:00.000-05:00

An analysis of FL from the same guy who did the previously posted analysis of OH.

Must read. Here is his conclusion:

The evidence from the registration statistics and 2000 turnout statistics are sufficient for me to predict that Bush will win Florida. With a Democratic base that will likely vote a net 10% less Democratic relative to 2000, and a GOP base that will likely vote more frequently Republican relative to 2000 -- Kerry just faces too large a deficit.

Note for all of you poll watchers, if Kerry loses Florida by 100,000 -- he will lose it by about 2%. This means that you will see pro-Kerry polls between now and election day. It is a statistical inevitability. Roughly one in every six polls, actually, will be pro-Kerry. So, don't worry about the polls! Just keep your eyes on my rolling, unweighted average (which currently shows the likelihood of a Bush FL victory at >90%).

A VERY Detailed look at Ohio

2004-10-29T13:58:00.000-05:00

Just found a long but excellent post discussing the situation in OH.

Any analysis of the Presidential campaign in terms of electoral votes shows that if the President wins FL and OH without losing any of the solid RED states he pretty much wins. If you want to get a really warm fuzzy feeling about OH go read this entire analysis.

Here are some hints at what Jay believes about OH:

1. The fact that BC04 is organized down to the precinct level facilitates:

A. Intimate knowledge of every small section of the state. This would include:

1. Knowledge of the number and characteristics of registered voters in the precinct. What issues are enthusing voters? What issues are turning them off? What are the best forms of advertisement to affect voters in each precinct? What are the demographics of the voters in each precinct, and how are these affecting their voting attitudes?

2. An excellent estimate (i.e. an estimate with a low margin of error) of each candidate’s support, and strength of that support, in each precinct over time. This means that in the aggregate, BC04 are working from what is closer to a head-count than a poll of Ohio voters.

3. Ability to track small changes in voter attitudes before election day. This includes intensive monitoring and “discipline” within 72 hours of the election.

4. Precinct-by-precinct quotas built around A-1 and A-2. Specifically, BC04 could probably tell you with high specificity the minimal number of votes per precinct they need to get to enjoy a winning night.

5. In general, BC04 is able to detect problems in the state of Ohio and react efficiently to solve them. If we have not seen Dubya in Ohio until yesterday, it must mean that they are very confident about their position in Ohio. We we saw Dubya in the northeast section of the state, it has something to do with the situation there on the ground.

Ohio is not a swing state. Though it does not register voters by party – it is thoroughly Republican. Both Senators are Republican. The Governor is Republican. There are twice as many Republican than Democratic members in Ohio’s delegation to the House of Representatives.
In general, BC04 appears to me to be an ethical, high-tech, more efficient version of the GOTV efforts of the 19th century Philadelphia machine run from Harrisburg by the state’s Republican establishment. This type of organization is particularly suited to Ohio, which is naturally Republican and which presents no comparable competition in GOTV this year. Look for the final partisan breakdowns on Election Day in OH to be much more pro-Republican than the current polling samples. As usual, look for the media to be surprised and the conventional wisdom to be wholly confounded.

Some more support for why GOTV for Bush is going to defeat Kerry

2004-10-29T13:41:00.000-05:00

Very interesting analysis which says in part:

The FEC calculated 2000 voter turnout as 51.3 percent of the voting age population (VAP). Total Red state (Bush) voter turnout was 50.0% of VAP, while Blue state (Gore) turnout was 52.5% of VAP. That 2.5 point edge in Blue state turnout gave Gore the popular vote — had it been reversed, and 52.5% of Red staters turned out while only 50.0% of Blue staters showed up, Bush would have won the popular vote as well as the electoral vote. And it wasn't just the turnout in the "battleground states" that mattered, but also the solid Democratic and Republican states.

That missing 2.5% is going to show up this year... along with another 1.5% or so of their friends. Bush is going to substantially improve on his margins among Blacks, Hispanics, Women, Catholics and Jews.

The Republican Party GOTV is going to be very successful. The Democratic GOTV is not going to produce anywhere near the proportional improvement in turnout for Kerry.

Game over.

A Terrific and Convincing Illustration of Why You should vot e for Bush

2004-10-29T13:26:00.000-05:00

Go Here. Then laugh. Thanks to Ann Althouse guest blogging at Instapundit.

Maybe this is the 'October Surprise'

2004-10-29T13:16:00.000-05:00

Polipundit pointed to this post on SwiftVeterans apparently in the last few minutes that says:

Okay, folks.

We got it finally. We have the Former Secretary of the Navy who stated, "Yes, Kerry did receive an Other Than Honorable Discharge".

Stay tuned for more...

Now to MAKE THE MEDIA AND CONGRESS LISTEN!

Go my brothers and sisters -- spread the news to everyone!!!!

- Chief

Bush to get 60% of Vote according to highly reliable model

2004-10-29T13:04:00.000-05:00

Political Vice Squad has a post today about something called the "Fair Model" developed by a professor at Yale University. This model has been eerily correct in previous Presidential elections. It has been within 2% of correct in 16 of the preceding 21 Presidential Elections. Its average error was 1.5%. The largest 'error' was 5% in 1992.

The conclusion posted:

According to Fair Model No. 1, George W. Bush now is expected to receive 62.47 percent of the two-party, popular vote. So, in other words, and assuming Ralph Nader and the other minor-party candidates were to receive three percent of the national vote, then President Bush is expected to receive 60.59 percent of the ballots that are cast next Tuesday. That would be virtually identical to the popular vote share taken by Richard Nixon, in 1972.

My interpretation of this would suggest that even if this model was off by 5% the President would still receive 55% of the votes. With Nader etal getting 3% that leaves only 42% for Kerry and Thumbkin.

Drudge was correct.... Media/Democrats still not convinced

2004-10-29T13:02:00.000-05:00

The Pentagon, as advertised, produced a very serious Major who led a team of soldiers that took approx. 250 tons of explosives out of the Al Qaqaa storage facility during the time in question. He indicated quite clearly that much of it was 'plastic explosives' which is what the furor has been about.

The most important aspect of this announcement, in my mind, is the fact that this illustrates that the U.S. forces took over this compound in a firefight with Sadaam Fedayeen, remained in control of it and, as you would expect, called the experts in ordinance removal who came and took most of it away.

There is some remaining confusion over how much ordinance remained at that site and what happened to it. But.... it is increasingly clear that he premise our troops just blew past this place and left all that dangerous stuff unguarded allowing it to be spirited away by bad guys is ludicrous.

The Major did say it took his team a day and one-half and something like 16 semi-trailer trucks to move the 250 tons they removed. If you believe the bad guys snuck into this place and took out 380 tons with the U.S. forces in total control of the skies, the roads and the immediate area you are simply living an a fantasy land.

MSM is going to focus on the fact that Major could not/would not state categorically that the material he removed was part of the IAEA materials. My guess is Pentagon is giving them just enough more rope to really hang themselves. Hints were made that there is much more documentation forthcoming.

Democratic mouthpieces on cable news after press briefing STILL not conceding that Kerry and the NYT etal are WRONG about this.

Drudge Reporting Pentagon Briefing

2004-10-29T10:51:00.000-05:00

Drudge is reporting that a 'soldier' will brief reporters this morning that he and his unit removed approx. 200 tons of explosives from the infamous Al Qaqaa storage facility.

If true this should just about be the last nail in Kerry's coffin.

Important to remember that Drudge is not always right but he frequently is.

Kerry's Afghanistan Amnesia

2004-10-29T10:37:00.000-05:00

As usual Charles Krauthammer is dead on right....

His column today in the Washington Post both illustrates the reprehensible approach Senator Kerry has taken to the entire campaign by specifically tracking Kerry's statements on Afghanistan and reminds us of the brilliant achievements of the Bush Administration there.

Last Thoughts for the Day.....

2004-10-28T22:47:00.000-05:00

A very good day for the President. Not such a good day for Kerry and Thumbkin.

Very worried about a terrorist attack between now and the election. Not much we can do but wait.

The thing with Arafat is really a wild card. If he goes there is the possibility of total chaos or the emergence of the second tier Palestinians who are serious about peace and who are tired of the corruption, misguided policies and so forth.

Four more days, four more years......

Hispanic Democrats abandoning Kerry

2004-10-28T21:57:00.001-05:00

Newsmax (thanks to Jonathan Leffingwell at Crush Liberalism) published a very interesting article today a portion of which appears below:

WASHINGTON -- The Board of Directors of The Latino Coalition (TLC) and over twenty other Hispanic organizations and heads of organizations from across the country, today announced they will support the reelection of President George W. Bush.

"President Bush knows and understands the Hispanic community better than any other President before him," said TLC Vice Chairman Susan Alvarado. "He has appointed more Hispanics to the highest levels of government than any other President before him. He has taken the lead to address key issues that will improve the lives of Latino families all across the country, such as the No Child Left Behind education reform program, his tax cuts for working families, his proposal to reform our immigration system, his trade agreements within our hemisphere, and his efforts to assist uninsured Hispanic workers get access to affordable health insurance. But above all, he has been a strong and decisive leader on making sure that America is safe and secure, and that we win the war on terrorism.

" On the other hand, the TLC Board cited the unimpressive and lackluster record of Senator John Kerry. "Throughout his career in the United States Senate, John Kerry has all but ignored the Latino community," said TLC President Robert Deposada. "In 20 years as a Senator, Kerry has not sponsored or co-sponsored any legislation to reform our immigration system, or to reform education, or to help uninsured workers get access to affordable health insurance. Also, he has been as inconsistent with his policies on trade with Latin America or on Castro's Cuba, as he has been with the War in Iraq. Clearly, this man does not have the decisiveness and the vision we need in a President, particularly at a time of war."
"His record in the U.S. Senate is so unimpressive on issues affecting Latinos, that a large number of Hispanic registered Democrats are crossing party lines to support President George W. Bush," Deposada added. "His many empty promises in the midst of a political campaign are falling on deaf ears, simply because he doesn't have the credibility in our community. We have yet to find a single high-level Hispanic appointment during his 20 years in the U.S. Senate or while he served as Massachusetts Lt. Governor. So when he talks about looking out for our community, most people realize that he cannot be effective, simply because he doesn't know or understand us."

Over 20 Hispanic organizations and the leaders of many organizations joined The Latino Coalition in endorsing the reelection of President Bush.

"In 2000, I voted for Al Gore for President. I am a registered Democrat and was not a fan of George W. Bush," said Hispanic Business Roundtable Board Member Elizabeth Fernandez, a registered Democrat in Fairfax, Virginia. "But after 9-11, as a mother of two girls, I began to admire the man. He is clearly a man of conviction, a strong and decisive leader and a man who I know will keep America, and therefore my family, safe and secure."

"I am the perfect example of the security mom. While I might not agree with him on all issues, I do believe that the security of our country against terrorist has to be our number one priority," Mrs. Fernandez added. "Domestic issues are secondary to our national security, simply because we witnessed first hand that another large scale attack on our country, could be devastating to our economy and all other appropriation spending on new domestic programs. This will be the first time I vote for a Republican candidate for President. But I do it because the security of my family and my country, is far more important than party labels."

"As a registered Democrat and an immigration attorney, I was looking forward to supporting my party's nominee to promote an agenda to help our community. But after a careful look at Senator Kerry's record, I cannot support his candidacy," said National Hispanic Restaurant Association Board Member Manuel Solis, of Houston, Texas and owner of the largest immigration law firm in the U.S. "In 20 years in the U.S. Senate, John Kerry has not sponsored or co-sponsored a single immigration reform bill. If he ignored our community for 20 years, why should we believe his empty promises in the middle of a political campaign? This will be the first time I vote for a Republican candidate for President, because I am convinced that George Bush knows our community and had the courage to address the immigration issue and propose a common sense approach to help the most vulnerable in our community."

Even a Major German Newspaper Has figured it out....

2004-10-28T21:32:00.000-05:00

Wish the NYT would hire some people from BILD, a major German newspaper. Today BILD endorsed President Bush and the logic is quite impressive. The translation is courtesy of David Kasper's "David's Medienkritik" - Polititcally Incorrect observations on reporting in the German Media.

The top ten reasons for voting for President Bush according to BILD:

1. Bush has clear priorities. He sees the inhuman Islamic fundamentalism and the murderous mullahs as the largest danger for the Western world.
2. Bush has learned the lessons of history. Military strength, not pleasant talk, is the only thing that helps against violent fanatics. And with Bush -- unlike with Kerry -- there is no doubt about this.

3. Under Bush, the US, as a superpower, will continue to bear the financial, military and casualty burden in the fight against terrorism in a "holy war" which Islamic fanatics unilaterally declared.

4. Along with fighting terror and the terrorists, a re-elected Bush will do everything he can to prevent nuclear proliferation. That is especially true with regard to the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.

5. Bush has learned that America can defeat every country in war, but needs allies in peace. Thus, his second term will be characterized by cooperation with international partners. But he will not depend on how Syria or Libya vote at the UN.

6. Bush knows that Europe and Germany don’t have the military at their disposal to become involved in any further foreign military engagements. Therefore he won't ask them for help. Kerry will do exactly that – and will further burden already damaged German-American relations.

7. Under Bush, America will remain a reliable partner for Israel in its fight for survival. That must especially be in our German interest.

8. Republicans have always been stronger supporters of free trade than Democrats. That is also true of Bush when compared to Kerry. And that is good for Germany as an export nation.

9. Every new American administration makes mistakes. Bush has already made his. Kerry, on the other hand, has of yet held no (executive) position in the government. He would be worse prepared than most Presidents preceding him.

10. With Bush, we know what to expect. With Kerry, nobody knows what he stands for and where he wants to lead America – and the world.

On Oct 22 another "Insider" predicted the move to Bush we are seeing today

2004-10-28T21:28:00.000-05:00

CrushKerry posted a story on Oct. 22 that included the following quote from a "veteran GOP consultant" who looks to be eerily on target.

“In the next couple of days you will see a trend that shows Kerry taking a small but consistent lead against President Bush. I’m talking one or two points. And then, almost without warning or explanation, you will see the President open up a four- to six-point lead on or around Thursday. And that trend will carry the President through Election Day.”

Bush Campaign Seeing Very Good News from Internal Polling!!!

2004-10-28T21:13:00.000-05:00

Thanks to Hugh Hewitt for highlighting this from Kerry Spot.

More good news for the President.... if this information is correct. Strikes me as credible.

Here is what Kerry Spot reported this afternoon:

FROM A SOURCE CLOSE TO THE CAMPAIGN [10/28 02:07 PM]

Just heard from a source close to the campaign, tuned in to the conversations at the highest levels.

According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers.

They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.

The internal polls show a significant lead in Florida (outside margin of error) and Arkansas is out of play, with a Bill Clinton visit or without. As for most of the other big ones - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, internal polls show all too close to call.

Michigan is seriously looking like a pickup - Bush and Cheney could be there four times in the last four days.

An exit poll of those who have already voted show Bush ahead by 15 points! [UPDATE: This is ahead 15 points overall, nationwide, not just in Michigan. Obviously, those who have already voted are only a small, small segment of the electorate at large, so one should not read too much into this number. But it is interesting.]

Undecided voters appear to be breaking Bush’s way - some days he has a slight lead, other days it’s right around 50-50. (Note this would be considerably better than the 1/3 calculated that Bush needs here.

Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa.

Tommy Franks is going to enter this story and rip Kerry and the New York Times a new one. The Kerry folks are acting like they realized they have botched this story, and want to shift back to domestic topics. Lockhart, Bill Richardson on Imus — when asked about al-QaQaa, they dodge the question and quickly try to bring up other issues.

The campaign is going to avoid the Russian angle and go with the straightforward, “As the facts mount in this story, American people have a choice between believing Kerry-NYTimes-CBS or believing Bush and the Troops.”

This source close to the campaign didn’t say it, but I wonder if the Bush administration wants to deal with Russia in its own manner, and not have whatever diplomatic confrontations are going on behind the scenes complicated by a furious American electorate blaming Russia for hiding Iraq’s weapons and explosives.

One man's prediction about the Senate

2004-10-28T15:24:00.000-05:00

Larry Sabato, a professor at University of Virginia gave his predictions today about the upcoming election. Obviously, I think he is wrong about the Presidential race but given his mildly pro-Democratic leanings his prediction about the makeup of the Senate is very interesting. 55 to 45 with no Daschle sounds just about right to me.

Turning to Senate races, Sabato predicted a 53-45 Republican majority, with two complete toss-ups, in South Dakota and Florida, to determine how large the majority would be. The South Dakota race, where Minority Leader Tom Daschle is tied with Republican challenger John Thune going into the final week, especially worries Democrats Sabato said he has spoken with.

"Every one of them told me they're scared to death that Daschle will lose," he said."

The Choice

2004-10-28T15:02:00.000-05:00

Couldn't be clearer. Thanks to Polipundit for the link. You have to see this.

Will MSM hedge their bets?

2004-10-28T13:56:00.000-05:00

American Digest has quite interesting post about MSM deciding Kerry is toast and starting to shift their biased coverage. Mentions the NYT article about W's IQ.

Also VERY funny post about dangerous new medical condition.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.........

2004-10-28T13:10:00.000-05:00

Polipundit offers an interesting comparison between employment at this point in Bill Clinton's re-election effort in 1996 and today. One wonders why this level was so good then and so bad now. He also gives a link to the raw data for those of you who like to crunch numbers for your self.

Oct. 26, 1996 - Clinton

Weekly jobless claims (4-week avg.) = 339,000.
As a percentage of total workforce = 0.2512 percent.

On the other hand:

Oct. 23, 2004 - Bush 43

Weekly jobless claims (4-week avg.) = 343,000.
As a percentage of total workforce = 0.2326.

Fate of Bin Laden

2004-10-28T09:34:00.000-05:00

UBL is most likely dead, although some observers believe he is in Iran. Matthew Heidt's blog Froggy Ruminations has a post asserting that UBL is dead.

Whether he is dead, wandering around in Afgahanistan or holed up in Iran his ability to murder innocents has been severly disrupted by the U.S. for the first time because the Bush administration decided to take the fight to the terrorists.

The post itself is mainly conjecture but buried within the 100+ comments on the post is the following comment. It would be a bit naive to simply accept the post of some unidentified person who claims to have been in Afghanistan and to have known UBL's dentist.... but it makes for interesting reading.

I agree and have been saying so since 2002, when I first went back to Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. Here's what I posted at RLSimon recently:

OBL is dead. Killed with a bunker buster...to be exact, a 52 and a half foot rocket/bomb. Nearly three years ago.

I've been in Afghanistan a number of times since 9/11 and have pursued this question many times with the tribes, the Qwami Shura, NGO internationals, ISAAF, foreign journalists, jihadis, my associate, the German author of the best book on Bin Laden--the works. And posted on this since 2002. (Here, Daily Pundit and probably in my missives to Insta.) I also 'know' (i.e. saw on the street and lived in the same small neighborhood in UTown in Peshawar) as OBL in the 80s and know a bit about the man. I know his doctor during the 90s quite well, his family dentist (!) Zabir and can attest to the fact that those who knew him claim he's long departed from this earth. With no remains available...so little of him to scrape up that none can confirm his departure. Alas. Those bombs were a bitch. But they saw him in the cave, then the cave blew up. And all there was left were little pebbles.

I was overwhelmed in Afghanistan this summer with other work (and problems...'friend' Jack Idema was arrested) but I still had some time to meet with mullahs and tribal/political leaders, from Safi Nation to Zabul and Kandahar and the consensus remains OBL is dead. Even if he weren't dead, well, he'd dead. As Roger noted, an arrogant ideologue like OBL would not remain silent...or let his visage be ignored by the likes of vidiots at Al Jazeera. If he weren't dead, he'd be dead to the Afghans and Paks because he's a coward afraid to show his face; thus violating Pushtunwali...the codes of behavior that govern the regions where he is supposedly hiding.

That being said, Al Q'aeda is still a problematic presence, especially in Pakistan (where Musharaf is waging a heroic struggle against his traitorous ISI/madrassas) and the the indigent provinces of the Gulf States. I do demur from conventional wisdom on the growth of Al Q'aeda and the myth of Bin Laden in the Arab world. I was cheered in the oil emirates (the UAE) this summer to find--compared to 2002 and 2003--that Al Q'aeda's jihadist philosophy is losing steam and prestige. Basically, terrorism is bad for business and the Middle East is now an emerging financial power. It's widely accepted in the Gulf that if OBL were alive, he would have provided visual proof by now...absent that, he's no longer a factor, much less a hero. No pictures, no respect.

It was also quite clear in the UAE that the American effort in Iraq was gaining significant support...much to my surprise. Just a year ago, things were very different. Why Bush does not publicize or capitalize on these successes has always baffled me...from Afghanistan to the Gulf, pro-Americanism is ascendant.

Bush got important feedback on the possible effect of OBL's death on the Democratic party and its allied MSM when OBL's obiturary was printed in Egypt's largest daily (on the full front page) and broadcast on Al Jazeera. The Islamic press had journalists in the field with eyewitnesses quoted in their reports. The western MSM yawned, shrugged and said, in effect, 'move on, nothing to see here.'

Had our own media decided to investigate or take the Islamic press at its word, this would now be a dead issue. Bush couldn't have affected the story at all--it was now in the hands of the media and everything but the White House spin would have been out of his control. The potential of tremendous praise for Bush on this extraordinary success was simply too much to countenance, so the MSM passed on the story.

The real price of oil

2004-10-28T09:27:00.000-05:00

An energy expert named Vaclav Smil has recently authored an article posted on Tech Central Station that examines current oil prices in the context of inflation and purchasing power. It is interesting reading. Here is the final paragraph of the article:
And so in order to get an approximate but realistic comparison of how much today's prices impact an average manufacturer or average household purchases we should multiply the current high price of $55/bbl by 0.57 to get an effective comparable price of around $30, or no more than 40% of the average record price we paid in 1980. Moreover, between 1980 and 2003 average hourly earnings in services, where most new jobs were created, rose by about 30% and so another adjustment taking into account this higher earning power reduces the comparable price to just over $20. Other, more sophisticated adjustments, are possible but this one is easy to execute and easy to remember: the effective -- that is inflation-, oil/$GDP- and earning power-adjusted -- cost of oil at $(2004)53-55 is no more than about 30% of the average record price we paid in 1980 and 1981. That is why recent "record" oil prices have not had any substantial effect on the way this continent uses, and wastes, the most convenient of all fossil fuels.

The Election is settled..... IF

2004-10-27T22:42:00.000-05:00

If this story is true.....

Tonight Bill Gertz reports in the Washington Times and other sources seem to be confirming that Russian Special Forces moved the 380 tons of 'high explosives' involved in NYTrogate to Syria prior to the war. The Pentagon is reportedly considering releasing satellite photos of massive truck activity in the compound just prior to the invasion.

Doesn't this raise another obvious question.... what ELSE did those wily Russians sneak out of Iraq?

In fact the article explicitly states:

Defense officials said the Russians can provide information on what happened to the Iraqi weapons and explosives that were transported out of the country. Officials believe the Russians also can explain what happened to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs.

Coupled with the video threat purportedly from Al Queada made public by Drudge today this pretty much seals the fate of the Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Voter's attention will come off the phony explosives story and all but the most partisan voters will recognize that the hysteria Kerry and his supporters exhibited over 380 tons of conventional explosives (compared to over 400,000 tons of arms seized and destroyed by the Coalition) really just makes the President's case that this war was totally justified.

Rational voters will reflect on the rash reaction by the Democrats to the phony explosives story and the President's well reasoned comments on this situation. Senator Kerry's attempt to exploit it will really hit home for those with open minds and the desire to see our country prevail in this struggle.

It seems that the mainstream media's compulsive efforts to trash the President and boost the candidacy of John Kerry may have backfired rather spectacularly.

Certainly the polls indicate that the President is solidifying his lead in key states such as IA, NM, NV, AZ and MO. The fact that states such as HI, MI and NJ are even being discussed does not bode well for Kerry. PA, OH and FL still hold the key but it appears all but certain the President will win at least one of those states and likely he will win 2 of those 3.

So, I am going on record at this time with the prediction that the President will win this election rather handily.

What is actually happening in Iraq.... we are winning

2004-10-27T16:12:00.000-05:00

Ralph Peters has a piece in the NY Post today that offers an assessment of what is really going on in Iraq. Definitely worth reading.....

Key quote:

This is the big one. The fate of a civilization hangs in the balance. And all we hear from one presidential contender is that it's the "wrong war, at the wrong time."
It is. For the terrorists.

Another very interesting quote:

Let's review what's actually happening in Iraq.

The terrorist stronghold of Fallujah is increasingly isolated. Night after night, precision weapons and raids by special-operations forces kill international terrorist leaders. Terrified, the local troublemakers are trying to play the negotiations card. They know the U.S. Marines are coming back. And this time the Leathernecks won't be stopped short. Allah's butchers are praying that they can bring down our president before terror's citadel falls.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi people have been revolted by the terrorists' barbarities. They may not want U.S. troops in their streets forever, but they do not want to be ruled by fanatical murderers. Kidnapping aid workers and lopping off heads on videotape horrifies decent Muslims. The slaughter of 50 unarmed Iraqi recruits did not win hearts and minds.
Every day, Iraqis are more engaged in defending their own country. Elections are still on track. The suicide bombings continue, but they haven't deterred Iraq's new government. Nor have they been able to stop the Coalition and Iraq's expanding forces from cleaning out one terrorist rat's nest after another.

Muqtada al-Sadr is quiet as a mouse. Najaf is being rebuilt. Two-thirds of Iraq's provinces are quiet. We never see any headlines about our Kurdish allies in northern Iraq — because they're building a successful modern society in the Middle East.

Enthusiasm for Kerry - From Slate & Terrorists

2004-10-27T15:36:00.000-05:00

Polipundit, one of my favorite blogs, made note this afternoon of today's James Taranto's "Best of the Web" that includes both discussion of the enormous lack of genuine enthusiasm for Kerry on the part of Kerry voters at Slate AND a report on the explicit statement by an 'insurgent' in Iraq that they are trying to "drag Bush into the mud" with their attacks. Guess the guys on the receiving end of the Iraqi Special Forces and U.S. Military's excellence are hoping Kerry wins too.

If the statements by the writers at Slate are representative of the level of support for Kerry and Thumpkin a 300+ EV count for the President might really happen.

Hillary 2008 starts November 3

2004-10-27T14:58:00.000-05:00

The only slightly partisan CrushKerry blog posts an interesting story about Senator Clinton's plans for 2008. If you can get past the rather offensive first paragraph the article purports to offer some interesting insights into the possible workings of the Democratic Party right now... not to mention the Clinton's marriage.

Is this intramural Democratic sniping or is there some truth to this story?

According to another source, this one actually inside the Kerry campaign but close with the Hillary operation, the junior Senator from New York is also keeping a watchful eye on which Democrat operatives have expressed a little too much enthusiasm for John Kerry.

“It’s safe to say that if you’re working for Kerry in 2004, you won’t be welcome on the Hillary bandwagon in 2008. Hillary is loyal to her people and expects the same from them. She has expressed disappointment to me personally because of my involvement with Senator Kerry’s campaign,” the source said.

Lobbyists and other big money players in Washington, DC have been put on notice, as well: The 2008 campaign starts on November 3rd and the “Hillary Doctrine” is in effect … you are either with her or you are against her.

But if the election is as close as the polls seem to indicate, wouldn’t that give Kerry a pretty strong claim on the nomination in ’08? “You don’t understand the power Senator Clinton has over the Democrat Party. She is easily our single biggest fundraiser. And you don’t understand the power she has on this town [Washington, DC]. These people could give a rat’s a** about John Kerry,” our source inside the DNC added.

Iraqi Special Ops Forces "Swarming" the Insurgents

2004-10-27T14:40:00.000-05:00

National Review recently published a terrific article about the emerging capabilities of Iraqi Special Forces. Seems like the 'insurgents' find themselves in more of a 'quagmire' than coalition forces.

Excerpt from article:

Today, some 175 Iraqis have made the team. They are taking the fight to the enemy, and, in many ways, are proving themselves capable of operating as an independent unit.
"This are an emerging force, and yet they are taking the lead in our operations against the insurgents," says Nevers. "We conducted an operation a month ago in which this force did most of the planning and then physically led the way. The operation was very successful, and it consequently set the stage for what we are doing right now."

Asked if those on the team are more-formidable fighters than the best Iraqi troops faced by U.S. forces during the spring 2003 invasion, Nevers is quick to respond, "Yes, and they are far better than the Iraqis we were contending with in April 2004 [during the brutal fighting in and around Fallujah and Ramadi]."

Douglas points to the team's unique talents. "It's kind of like when you are coaching a baseball team and you want to play to the strength of the ballplayers to fit the system," he says. "These men are very good at clearing and direct-action. They literally swarm over an objective and that has a tremendously negative psychological affect on the enemy."

According to Douglas, the strength of the Iraqi SWAT team lies not so much in precision single-point clearing missions, a specialty of force recon, but in functioning as shock troops. "Iraqis are very good at raiding a particular area and quickly clearing several buildings at once," he says. "I'm afraid if we train them more on the precision clearing, they might lose that aggressiveness and speed that now serves them so well."

Speed indeed: When Iraqi SWAT commandos hit a target, they hit it hard. Racing forward in white pick-up trucks emblazoned with the unit's emblem — a black scorpion and dagger (an emblem designed by the Iraqis) — the raiders leap from the vehicles and rush toward their objective almost before the enemy has time to panic. The attackers — primarily in their early to mid-twenties — are armed with a variety of personal weapons including AK-47s and SIG Sauer assault rifles, shotguns, pistols, and grenades. They all wear khaki-colored assault suits (similar to zip-up flight suits) with an Iraqi-flag patch stitched on the shoulder. Khaki or black balaclavas cover their heads, concealing their faces. "The Iraqis like wearing balaclavas," says Douglas. "It makes them look fearless, and terrifies the enemy."

Turns out W is smarter than Kerry

2004-10-27T14:24:00.000-05:00

One of the most frequent assertions one hears (particularly from REALLY passionate Bush-haters) is that President Bush is intellectually inferior to Senator Kerry, assorted NYTimes columnists, the President of France and clearly the individual making the assertion.

Yet, here we find a article in that most favored of MSM publications offering a very different assessment.

NY Times article:

To Bush-bashers, it may be the most infuriating revelation yet from the military records of the two presidential candidates: the young George W. Bush probably had a higher I.Q. than did the young John Kerry.
That, at least, is the conclusion of Steve Sailer, a conservative columnist at the Web magazine Vdare.com and a veteran student of presidential I.Q.'s. During the last presidential campaign Mr. Sailer estimated from Mr. Bush's SAT score (1206) that his I.Q. was in the mid-120's, about 10 points lower than Al Gore's.

Mr. Kerry's SAT score is not known, but now Mr. Sailer has done a comparison of the intelligence tests in the candidates' military records. They are not formal I.Q. tests, but Mr. Sailer says they are similar enough to make reasonable extrapolations.

Mr. Bush's score on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test at age 22 again suggests that his I.Q was the mid-120's, putting Mr. Bush in about the 95th percentile of the population, according to Mr. Sailer. Mr. Kerry's I.Q. was about 120, in the 91st percentile, according to Mr. Sailer's extrapolation of his score at age 22 on the Navy Officer Qualification Test.

Linda Gottfredson, an I.Q. expert at the University of Delaware, called it a creditable analysis said she was not surprised at the results or that so many people had assumed that Mr. Kerry was smarter. "People will often be misled into thinking someone is brighter if he says something complicated they can't understand," Professor Gottfredson said.

Many Americans still believe a report that began circulating on the Internet three years ago, and was quoted in "Doonesbury," that Mr. Bush's I.Q. was 91, the lowest of any modern American president. But that report from the non-existent Lovenstein Institute turned out to be a hoax.